The Beltway Boys

HOW GOOD CAN THE NATIONALS BE?

2010-01-05T14:21:00.000-08:00

I was eight years old when I attended my first Senators’ baseball game. It’s not like I wanted to or anything. But I was a fan of Channel five’s “Countdown Carnival” with Bill Gormley, and he asked me—through the television of course—to have a carnival for Muscular Dystrophy. We didn’t get anything for doing it and we didn’t get to keep the money.

But we did get tickets to Senators’ games. Lots and lots of tickets. And so I went.

We went on a hot July day in 1964 and I had to sit through a double header against the Baltimore Orioles. It was my first visit to D.C. Stadium and I was surprised to see so many seats and so few people filling them.

The Senators lost both games, and looked pretty bad doing it. Baltimore had players like Boog Powell and Brooks Robinson and the Senators had Buster Narum and Steve Ridzik.

It turned out that most of the 8,000 fans that day came clutching “Countdown Carnival” coupons and really weren’t interested in the game. In the late innings, an Oriole player fouled a pitch into the deep right field stands. It ricocheted around for a moment before settling on top of one of the seats.

It took a minute or two for a kid to causally walk over and pick it up.

After the second game, my brother propped his feet up against the seat in front of him and mopped his brow with a napkin. He looked almost sullen.

He gazed up into the sky and said, “I wonder what it would be like in this town if we had a real baseball team?”

Forty-five years later, my brother’s question still rings true. What would happen in this town if the Washington Nationals was a success on the field?

To be sure, Washington is not a “sports-first” town like Boston or New York. Certainly, we love our sports, but not above all else. But with the weight of the world on the city’s shoulders, children’s games sometimes just aren’t taken seriously.

But outside of the Washington Redskins—and I can’t for the life of me understand why they are governed by a separate set of rules—Washington teams have to win and win big to fill the city’s arenas and stadiums.

After three straight first place finishes, the Baltimore Bullets moved to Washington in 1973 in hopes of larger crowds and bigger paydays. Though they continued to win division crowns in Washington and they drew bigger crowds, they were just ninth in attendance in an 18-team league.
For the decade, the Bullets averaged a second-place finish and a tenth-place attendance mark. It got worse in the 1980’s and 1990’s. The MCI Center brought back some fans for awhile but the team’s attendance again faded into embarrassment.

Sure, Michael Jordan helped the Wizards to a second and third place attendance mark, but things again returned to normal. They were 21st out of 30 teams last season.

The Capitals fortunes aren’t much different. Over the years, the team has averaged about 15,000 fans per game which places them in the lower third of the league.

In their first six seasons in Washington, the expansion Senators had an average finish of 9th place (out of 10) and was 9th in attendance over that period. In 1967, they finished eighth and saw their attendance jump to sixth.

After a last place finish in 1968—they also finished last in attendance—the Senators won 86 games the next season and drew 916,000 fans, finishing sixth in attendance.

They were bottom feeders in both categories in their last two years in Washington.

I think we can make some pretty accurate assumptions based on these numbers.

First, the city will provide enough support—in good times and bad—to keep the Nationals a viable Major League franchise. Second, their attendance will be directly proportionate to how well the team is doing.

Finally, the revenue stream will never be big enough to allow the Lerner family to spend like the Phillies, Mets and Braves.

The Phillies and Mets have engines that can easily idle in the $100 million range. The Braves—thanks to decades of quality management—are able to reach the same level of success with $10 or $15 million less per season.

The Nationals, for now, will probably have a payroll ceiling in the low $80 million range with the ability to surpass it now and then for “that one last piece of the championship puzzle.”

Last season, the Nationals drew 1.8 million fans, about 22,000 per game. That’s about 31,000 per win. The Atlanta Braves have about the same size population to draw from and averaged 28,000 fans per win in 2009.

So if we use 30,000 fans per win in a season, the Nationals might expect the following attendance:

60 wins: 1,800,000
70 wins: 2,100,000
80 wins: 2,400,000
90 wins: 2,700,000
100 wins: 3,000,000

As much as we might like, the Nationals are never going to draw more than three million fans in a season as the Mets and Phillies continually do. They can’t afford to make mistakes and just say, “Oh well,” and move on.

When the Nationals sign players like Austin Kearns to $24 million contracts, it keeps the team from signing someone else who can really help the team.

Once Kearns’ contract came off the books, they Nationals signed all-star pitcher Jason Marquis for about the same amount of money.

When the next “can’t miss” prospect comes along—someone like Stephen Strasburg—the Nationals will be able to pony-up and spend the money. But be clear: this won’t happen often.

The Nationals can one day be a championship caliber team. But they must be better than their Eastern Division rivals in almost every area to get there.

They must make personnel decisions as well as the Marlins. They have to produce a consistently good team year-in-and-year-out like the Braves. They have to spend like drunken sailors when the situation calls for it, like the Mets.

And they have to be able to retain their stars like the Phillies.

With Mike Rizzo and Stan Kasten running things, all of those goals are easily within reach. The Lerner’s pockets are deep enough, the new ballpark is good enough, and the city they play in is certainly big enough.

Everything has to go well from here on out for the Nationals to win. The question is, will it?

I think that, yes, it will.

DEREK NORRIS WINS "MiLBY AWARD" AS BEST HITTER IN CLASS-A BASEBALL

2010-01-02T13:41:00.000-08:00

Derek Norris, the Washington Nationals come-from-nowhere prospect, followed up an impressive rookie-league season in 2008 with a breakout year for the Hagerstown Suns and has won the “MiLBY” Award for being the best hitter in all of Class-A baseball.

Norris, 20, batted .286-23-84 in 437 at-bats for Low-A Hagerstown. Translated into a 550 at-bat major league season, his stats look even better: 160 hits, 38 doubles, 30 home runs and 107 RBI along with a .413 on-base percentage and a .513 slugging percent.

Norris was on pace for a .320-40-120 finish in early July but South Atlantic League pitchers stopped pitching to him. He would go days without seeing a fastball. By August, he stopped chasing bad pitches and took what the pitchers gave him, which was a whole lot of walks.

And he did all that while catching 126 games, having never before played in more than 70 games in a season.

Johnny Bench, perhaps the greatest hitting catcher of all time, batted .259-27-80 with a .301 on-base percent at the same age. No, he’s not Johnny Bench, but his minor league statistics do compare favorably.

Before the start of the 2009 season, Nationals’ fans were enthralled with the team’s bevy of first-round picks, players like first baseman Chris Marrero and pitcher Ross Detwiler.

Unless you were a total baseball geek, you never heard of Derek Norris.

But most everyday major leaguers aren’t taken in the first round of the amateur draft. So while we watch and wait for our “name” prospects like Detwiler and Marrero and Drew Storen and Stephen Strasburg to make it to Washington, we miss those late round picks that come from nowhere to integral parts of the team.

John Lannan was an 11th round selection in 2005. Craig Stammen was selected a round later the same draft. Josh Willingham was a 17th round selection by the Marlins in 2000 and Nyjer Morgan was a 33rd round afterthought by the Pirates two years later.

Is it no wonder then that many Nationals’ fans were wondering where in the world Derek Norris came from last season.

The Washington faithful were so elated with the team's 2007 first-round selection of pitcher Ross Detwiler that the other players taken that day ended up being little more than blurry afterthoughts.

Oh sure, second-round pick Jake Smolinksi and third rounder Steven Souza were known commodities, but by the fourth round you often find organizational-type players who fill holes in the minor league system until someone better comes along.

From 1999 through 2004, the best players drafted in the fourth round were pitchers Jonathan Papelbon and Cliff Lee. The rest were mostly marginal fourth-outfielder types and starting pitchers who ended up in the bullpen if they even made it to the major leagues at all.

Only one out of four players drafted in the fourth round from 1999-2004 made it to the major leagues, and less than four percent became everyday players. It’s no wonder that no one took notice of Derek Norris when he was selected as the 130th player in the 2007 amateur draft.

He was just another high school catcher with little hope of a major league career.

Or so we all thought.

Norris grew up in Goddard, Kansas, a Wichita bedroom community. He was named to the 2007 Louisville Slugger All-American team and was selected as Gatorade's Baseball Player of the Year for the state of Kansas.

He had committed to play for nearby powerhouse Wichita State, and when he was drafted by the Nationals, he began to prepare for his first semester in college. Norris didn't think he would ever sign with Washington and wasn’t sure he really wanted to.

He believed he was a second-round baseball player, and expected second-round money, something he was unlikely to get from the then tightfisted front office.

But one night, Nationals’ representative Bob Boone showed up at the Norris family’s front door. A fellow catcher, Boone painted pictures of his days in the major leagues, talked about his seven Gold Gloves, and flashed enough of the Lerner family's money to convince Derek to sign with the Nationals.

Did the Nationals give him the second-round money he wanted?

"Well, I got what I think I need," said the young catcher when the signing was announced.

Being diplomatic goes a long way in Washington.

He spent his first season with the Gulf Coast Nationals, which better resembles a baseball academy than a professional minor league club. There are wake-up calls, bed checks, and games played before a few dozen fans during the hottest part of Florida's day.

I guess you can add rookie baseball players to the old saying that, "Only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the noon-day sun."

The 18-year-old didn't do terribly well during his first professional campaign, hitting just .203-4-15 in 123 at-bats. His .344 on-base and .382 slugging percentages weren't very good either. He struck out 30 percent of the time while walking just 17 percent.

However, he showed good defense behind the plate, and he was promoted to the New York Penn League's Vermont Lake Monsters in 2008. And there, his offensive production changed like the New England seasons.

In just 227 at-bats, Norris batted .278-10-38, and had 11 stolen bases. He walked 63 times (an all-time Lake Monsters record) while striking out just 56 times.

He had a .463 slugging percentage, and his .444 on-base percentage led the league. He raised his walk rate from 16 percent of his appearances in 2007 to 22 percent in 2008 while dropping his strikeouts from 31 to just 24 percent.

Now look at his stats when expanded out to a 500 at bat season—the best way to contrast and compare with other players: .278—23 HR—85 RBI, 24 stolen bases, 144 walks and 128 strikeouts.

Wait a minute: 144 walks?

That's Barry Bonds territory.

Those statistics fit perfectly with his scouting report numbers from thebaseballcube.com (these are based on 100 possible points): Power: 90, Speed: 61, Contact: 26 and Patience: 100.

Wowsers. And he was a 19-year-old hitting against mostly 21 and 22-year-olds who had three or four years of college experience.

Double wowsers.

He was named that season to the Topps Rookie League All-Star Team, and Baseball America tapped him as Washington's No. 6 prospect. He was also designated as having the best plate discipline of all Nationals' prospects.

Norris' defense is getting better. He led the New York-Penn league in throwing out base runners with a 47 percent efficiency rate. That compares favorably with former National Brian Schneider, considered one the premier defensive catchers in baseball, who threw out 50 percent of base stealers that year.

Note that current Nationals’ catcher Jesus Flores, considered a solid defender, threw out just 36 percent of would-be base runners in 2008 and 42 percent last season.

Norris, however, acknowledges that his glove lags behind his bat. That makes sense, though, when you consider that he had never caught before his senior year in high school.

“My weakness is just catching the ball - simply just catching the ball," Norris said. "I'm not too worried about the passed balls (28 in 2009) or stuff like that; I've always done pretty well keeping in front of the ball. Mainly [I need to improve on] catching the ball and just staying focused."

Norris impressed team management last spring and was named the starting catcher for the Hagerstown Suns. There was a lot of pressure on the young man; it would be very difficult to duplicate his 2008 season, but if he didn't, he might find himself lingering in the low minors for quite some time.

Not to worry.

At the end of last season, South Atlantic League managers, general managers, sportswriters and broadcasters selected him as the “Most Outstanding Major League Prospect” in the 16-team league.

Norris will begin 2010 with the High-A Carolina League’s Potomac Nationals, but he should reach Double-A Harrisburg by the end of the season. If he continues to have success, a year at Triple-A Syracuse should have him being at least close-to-ready for the Nationals in 2011.

Will he compete with Jesus Flores and Ivan Rodriguez in Washington in a couple of years?

Interestingly, the Nationals aren't sure they are going to keep Norris as a catcher. He has shown great speed for a catcher (decent speed for an infielder) and there is talk of perhaps moving him to first base or a corner outfield position. He was a third baseman before moving behind the plate.

But Norris isn't thinking that way. "No, I'm not looking to change any positions. "I know my numbers look a little shaky at times, as far as passed balls and errors but I think that if I keep progressing from year to year I'll achieve what I want to achieve."

If Flores continues to improve and can stay healthy, Norris will have to move to another position if he stays with the organization. But if Jesus doesn't make it, look for Norris to be given a chance by 2012.

Derek Norris looks like the real deal. His manager at Hagerstown, former catcher Matt LeCroy, sees him as a "Russell Martin" type. And that's pretty good considering Martin--in just three seasons, has been to an All Star game and has garnered both a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award. And LeCroy thinks he'll be an even better hitter.

The kid has the talent to break that fourth-round trend of fading obscurity. All he needs now is a little luck and a lot of desire.

JORDAN ZIMMERMANN, NOT STEPHEN STRASBURG IS KEY TO NATIONALS FUTURE

2010-01-01T14:24:00.001-08:00

In the days before the arrival of Stephen Strasburg, there was already a pitching prospect considered good enough to be the team’s future No. 1 starter.

His name was Jordan Zimmermann.

Zimmermann was a second-round supplemental pick obtained from the Chicago Cubs for the loss of Alfonso Soriano (who do you think the Cubs would rather have these days?).

He was a surprise pick out of Wisconsin-Stevens Point, a Division III program that played most of its season in the snow, muck, and mire of Wisconsin’s endless winter.

Zimmermann was a late bloomer. He went undrafted out of high school thanks to his unimpressive 87-mph fastball, but he blossomed in college. By his senior year, his fastball was up to 95-mph and he went 10-0 with a 2.08 ERA, leading the Pointers to a Division III championship.

In parts of three minor league seasons with Washington, Zimmermann went 15-5 with a 2.81 ERA. He allowed just 7.1 hits and 2.9 walks per nine-innings while striking out 9.9.

The kid from nowhere was the real deal.

He joined the Nationals on April 20th of last season and started 16 games, going 3-5 with a 4.63 ERA. In typical rookie fashion, he was stellar on some days and abysmal on others.

Half of his 16 starts were quality starts (six innings or more pitched, three runs or less allowed); he pitched 51 innings, gave up just 39 hits, walked 11, and struck out 44. He had a minuscule 1.93 ERA.

Those other eight starts, though, were ugly. Zimmermann gave up 56 hits and 18 walks in 40 innings. His ERA was 7.63.

But that was expected. Rookies struggle. Rookies learn from their mistakes. Rookies get better.

But Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have the chance.

In late July, Zimmermann began to feel some tenderness in his elbow, which quickly turned into significant pain. He saw the team doctor, who diagnosed the injury as a ligament tear that needed “Tommy John” surgery to repair. A second and a third opinion found the same thing.

Zimmermann had the surgery in August and afterwards, general manager Mike Rizzo reported that the team expected that their prize prospect would miss up to 18 months. Said Rizzo, “We'll have him back—full go—for spring training 2011, though he may pitch sometime in 2010. But you'll see the real Zimmermann in 2011.”

The loss of Jordan Zimmermann was a real punch-in-the-gut for the Nationals because he represented the team's hope for the future. But the despondency and dread that came with his surgery lasted all of two days.

Zimmermann had his surgery on August 15th of last season. Two days later, the Nationals came to terms with their No. 1 draft pick Stephen Strasburg, considered the best pitching prospect of the draft era.

Jordan who?

The Nationals will probably find four quality starters to lead the team in 2010. Jason Marquis and John Lannan will lead the rotation and Scott Olsen—if healthy—will be the team’s No. 3 starter.

That leaves two spots to fill and four quality pitchers available to fill them. Ross Detwiler had a 1.93 ERA in September after returning to his college mechanics, J.D. Martin and Craig Stammen pitched well in their rookie seasons, and Matt Chico—who is ready to return from his Tommy John surgery in 2010—was the Nationals’ best pitcher in 2007.

And in 2011, Stephen Strasburg will, without question, be in the Nationals’ rotation, likely as the No. 1 starter.

Zimmermann will be back in 2011 along with his three “plus plus” pitches (scout lingo for “out” pitches). But will he be as good as he was? Can a pitcher have his throwing elbow reconstructed and return a year later with his talent fully intact?

The Washington Nationals can make the jump from bad team to playoff contender without Jordan Zimmermann, but with him, they will have one of the best starting rotations in the National League in 2011.

Dr. Frank Jobe did the first Tommy John surgery on, strangely enough, Tommy John, in 1974. To that point, John had pitched 12 seasons, winning 124 games with a 2.94 ERA.

The surgery, which replaces the damaged elbow ligament with a forearm tendon, kept John out until the 1976 season. Over the next 12 seasons, he won another 153 games with a 3.35 ERA.

Certainly, the surgery worked for Tommy John. But was he the exception or the rule?

Since 1974, more than 160 pitchers have had Tommy John surgery and almost 10 percent of all pitchers on baseball’s 2009 opening day rosters had the procedure.

Just a sampling of pitchers who have had the surgery include: Rod Beck, Erik Bedard, Kris Benson, A.J. Burnett, Chris Carpenter, Ryan Dempster, Darren Dreifort, Adam Eaton, John Franco, Eric Gagne, Mike Gonzalez, Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson, Jason Isringhausen, Billy Koch, Jon Leiber, Matt Mantei, Russ Ortiz, Carl Pavano, Kenny Rogers, John Smoltz, Billy Wagner, and Kerry Wood.

Let’s look at a handful of those players and see if we can get a feel for what the Nationals—and Jordan Zimmermann—have to look forward to.

When the surgery was announced last August, Rizzo said that the surgery’s success rate, having the pitcher return to pre-surgery form, is 85-90 percent.

A.J. Burnett (2003) Before: 30-32, 4.84 After: 70-53, 3.83

Chris Carpenter (2003) Before: 49-50, 4.83 After: 68-24, 2.91

Ryan Dempster (2004) Before: 52-56, 4.77 After: 36-34, 3.60

Denny Neagle (2004) Before: 124-92, 4.24 After: Never Returned

Mike Hampton (2005) Before: 138-101, 3.97 After: 10-14, 5.12

Carl Pavano (2006) Before: 61-64, 4.27 After: 19-14, 5,18

John Smoltz (2000) Before: 157-113, 3.35 After: 56-42, 3.28

Jason Isringhausen (99) Before: 17-18, 4.43 After: 28-32, 3.20, 293 saves

Matt Mantei (1996) Before: 1-1, 5.34 After: 13-17, 3.90, 93 saves

Paul Byrd (2003) Before: 52-46, 4.39 After: 57-50, 4.42

Kerry Wood (1999) Before: 13-6, 3.40 After: 67-58, 3.71, 54 saves

For the most part, pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery have returned to have long and productive careers. With a few exceptions, hits, walks, and strikeouts per-nine innings have remained constant. Most of the pitchers who never came back from the surgery or pitched poorly were in the later stages of their careers and in their mid-30’s.

Some, like Billy Koch and Kerry Wood, thought they were better and stronger afterwards. Both claimed to have added speed to their fast balls. Koch claimed to have reached 108 MPH on the radar gun and Wood believed his fastball was faster and had more movement.

To save wear and tear on their elbows, John Smoltz and Kerry Wood became closers (though Smoltz returned to the starting rotation after four dominant seasons in the bullpen). Others, like Matt Morris, spent a year in the bullpen building their strength before returning to the rotation.

Although I would never have thought this at the time, Jordan Zimmermann’s surgery may have been a blessing in disguise for the Nationals. If Zimmermann was available in 2010, I seriously doubt that the team would have signed free agent Jason Marquis and Detwiler, Stammen, and Martin wouldn’t have had the opportunity to gain valuable major league experience.

The Nationals will have formed a solid rotation in 2010 without Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann. Come 2011, they will add those two starters, the two premier young pitchers in the National League East.

Think about this for a moment. In 2011, the Nationals will have a rotation that will feature two legitimate No. 1 starters in Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann. They will also have Jason Marquis (13-10, 4.17 over last three seasons) and John Lannan (3.90 career ERA).

The Nationals’ No. 1 starter in 2009 will be the team’s No. 4 starter in 2011.

If Scott Olsen shows that he is healthy next season, he will likely be the fifth starter in 2011. If not, the Nationals have Craig Stammen, J.D. Martin, Matt Chico, and Ross Detwiler to fill that final spot.

To become a truly competitive team, the Nationals just need Jordan Zimmermann to return as a serviceable pitcher. But if he is one of the 90 percent who come back fully healed, the Nationals will have a real chance to make the playoffs in 2011.

For five seasons, Nationals’ fans have hoped that the team would one day find a scenario that would finally lead the team out of the muck and mire of last place and make a run at the division crown.

Jordan Zimmermann is that scenario. One day, the Mets, Phillies, Braves, and Marlins will fly into Washington and shake their collective heads at the prospect of facing Strasburg and Zimmermann on consecutive nights.

And all will finally be well in Washington, D.C.

JASON BAY CONTRACT WILL MAKE IT HARDER TO RESIGN ADAM DUNN

2009-12-30T09:37:00.000-08:00

If I were Nationals’ General Manager Mike Rizzo, I’d be driving over to Adam Dunn’s house right now, contract in one hand and pen in the other.

And I’d be practicing my groveling.

Former Red Sox outfielder Jason Bay has agreed to a four year, $66 million contract. That’s $16.5 million per season for the 30 year old.

Dunn, a year younger at 29, is in the last year of a two-year contract that pays him $20 million, or $10 million per season.

Is Jason Bay worth $6.5 million more per year than Adam Dunn?

In 922 career games, Bay has hit 185 home runs and driven in 610 runs. In 1,290 games, Dunn has hit 316 homers and driven in 777.

But take a look at how they compare over their last two seasons:

Batting Average
Bay: .277
Dunn: .252

Doubles
Bay: 32
Dunn: 30

Triples
Bay: 4
Dunn: 0

Homers
Bay: 34
Dunn: 39

RBI
Bay: 110
Dunn: 106

On base percent
Bay: .378
Dunn: .392

Slugging percent
Bay: .529
Dunn: .527

OPS
Bay: .907
Dunn: .913

Home run per at-bat:
Bay: One every 21.1 at-bats
Dunn: One every 13.9 at-bats

RBI per at-bat
Bay: One every 6.3 at-bats
Dunn: One every 5.6 at-bats

Bay has the better batting average but Dunn has the superior on-base percentage. Dunn hits more homers but Bay drives in a few more runs.

And defensively, both players are just plain terrible.

Over the course of a season, Bay allows 10 more runs to score than the average left fielder, the same as Dunn. Dunn’s range factor is 1.90 while Bay’s is 1.91 (the league average is 1.97).

Like I said, just plain terrible, both of them.

Bay is a year older than Dunn, has less power, gets on base less often, hits a few more singles, and drives in a few more runs but needs more at-bats to do it. And both can’t field worth a darn.

And he’s worth $6.5 million more per year?

I find this almost funny to say out loud, but the New York Mets had to overpay to get a badly needed bat.

But to be fair, the Nationals underpaid Adam Dunn two seasons ago. If he were to re-enter the free agent market next fall, he’d likely get $13-14 million per year. So now is the right time to work out a long-term extension to keep Dunn in Washington for another three or four years, say for about $12.5 million per year.

But Rizzo had better do it quickly, or Dunn just might say, “You know, I think I’ll wait until the season is over before talking about a new contract.” If that happens, he’ll never return to Washington.

Are you on the interstate yet, Mike?

REBUILT BULLPEN COULD LEAD TO 2010 TURNAROUND

2009-12-27T09:56:00.000-08:00

It sure is going to be fun watching the Washington Nationals play baseball now that the adults are in charge.

Former general manager Jim Bowden would address a specific need by signing dozens of players in the hopes that one of them might make the team.

More often than not, however, the Nationals never got any better. He was like a shotgun, hoping that one pellet out of a thousand might reach its target.

Mike Rizzo, on the other hand, is more like a rifle, where only one shot is needed to hit the target. Rizzo identifies the need and fills it, calmly, quietly, and efficiently.

In need of a centerfielder since 2006, Bowden paraded a collection of players through the outfield for three years before being forced out this past spring. Alex Escobar, Brandon Watson, Nook Logan, Ryan Langerhans, Willie Harris, and Lastings Milledge all gave it a try.

None succeeded.

It took Rizzo five months and one trade to fix the problem when he acquired Nyjer Morgan from the Pirates last July. The Nationals were 36-76 without Morgan in 2009 and 22-26 with him.

Bowden’s answer to the team’s ongoing bullpen problem last winter was to sign a bunch of castoffs, pitchers like Ron Villone and Julian Tavarez, Kip Wells and Wil Ledezma.

Only Villone survived the season, and really, with a 4.25 ERA and five walks per nine-innings, he shouldn’t have.

The Nationals have had one of the worst bullpens in baseball since 2006. But Mike Rizzo fixed in a month what Jim Bowden couldn’t fix in four years.

Rizzo has completely reworked the bullpen for 2010. Last season, Bowden’s Opening Day bullpen consisted of Joe Beimel, Joel Hanrahan, Mike Hinckley, Wil Ledezma, Saul Rivera, and Julian Taverez, who were a combined 5-18, 6.87 in 155 innings for the Nationals.

Though Rizzo has yet to name his bullpen for next season, the Nationals have six quality arms and six positions to fill. Let’s take a look those players and see how they might help the Nationals in 2010.

Note: Hits, walks, and strikeouts per nine innings will look like this: 8.8/3.3/6.3. Batting average, on-base, and slugging percent will appear as .274/.355/.455. IRS is the percentage of inherited runners that are allowed to score.

Tyler Clippard: 4-2, 2.69 5.4/4.8/10.0 .172/.284/.349 IRS:37%

Clippard was considered the New York Yankees premier minor league pitching prospect before Joba Chamberlain and Phillip Hughes came along. He was traded to Washington following the 2007 season for relief pitcher Jonathan Albaladejo .

Clippard has three quality major league pitches (fastball, curve, and change) and can get hitters out with all of them. He sets up his curveball with his fastball which tops out at 91 mph. He is unhittable when his control is perfect, but without a dominant fastball, he gets into trouble when he’s forced to throw a lot of 2-0 and 3-1 pitches.

He walks too many (4.8 per nine-innings) but that is because he trusts his location so much that he is willing to “paint the black” on a 3-2 pitch.

Clippard was by far the Nationals’ best relief pitcher in 2009.

Jason Bergman: 2-4, 4.50 9.4/4.7/7.5 .267/.375/.450 IRS:14%

The Nationals have been trying to decide what role Bergman should play since they moved to Washington five seasons ago. He appeared solely in relief in 2009 and will likely be the long reliever in 2010.

In 14 of his appearances, the Nationals were three runs or more behind when he entered the game, and he did a credible job of keeping the team close.

He’s not a great pitcher, but Jason Bergman is certainly good enough to be the team’s long reliever.

Eddie Guardado: 1-2, 4.46 9.2/3.5/4.7 .267/.344/.479 IRS:47%

Guardado, at 38, isn’t the reliever he once was, but he is still fairly effective. From 2002-2005, he averaged 35 saves and a 2.84 ERA. Don’t let the minor league contract fool you; he’ll be in the bullpen in 2010.

He’ll have a limited role with Washington, probably as the designated lefty-against-lefty specialist. Against left-handers, Guardado’s batting average/on-base percent/slugging percent-against was just .229/.268/.349. Ron Villone, last year’s left-handed specialist, was hit hard by lefties, allowing a .293 batting average and .396 on-base percentage.

Guardado is an upgrade over Villone.

Sean Burnett: 1-1, 3.20 5.0/4.6/7.1 .157/.265/.281 IRS:17%

You would be hard-pressed to find a reliever with better statistics anywhere in the National League last season. A .157 batting average-against? You have got to be kidding.

Burnett is a terrific ground ball pitcher with great command. He has a sharp curveball and a solid change. He gets righties and lefties out equally well. His walk ratio is a little high but he gives up half the number of hits of a typical reliever, so things even out pretty well.

Brian Bruney: 5-0, 3.92 8.3/5.3/8.3 .243/.347/.412 IRS:31%

Bruney was Mike Rizzo’s first move of the offseason, obtaining the Yankee’s setup man for a Rule V draftee obtained a few days later.

His numbers were impressive last year, but he’s been even better over his last two seasons, going a combined 8-0, 2.93. Bruney has a fastball that can reach triple-digits, but he’s at his best when he’s throwing in the mid 90’s with good movement. He has an outstanding curve and a good change.

He’s described as having a bulldog mentality, someone who won’t back down with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth with no outs and a 3-2 count. The Nationals haven’t had many of those types of pitchers over the years.

Hopefully, he’ll be a leader in the bullpen and as Matt Capps’ setup man.

Matt Capps: 3-5, 2.58 7.5/1.4/7.o .226/.263/.339 IRS: 42%

The numbers above reflect the average of Capps’ two seasons as closer with the Pittsburgh Pirates prior to 2009. He imploded last season, going 4-8, 5.80, allowing four more hits per nine innings, twice the walks and fewer strikeouts. He allowed 57 percent of inherited runners to score.

It’s not that I’m being nice to Capps, I’m being fair. He suffered extensive elbow problems last year, causing him to miss several games in May and was day-to-day through the end of June. Mike Rizzo is betting—and I agree—that Capps’ 2009 season was an anomaly caused by injury.

In his first two years as closer, Capps allowed less than a runner per inning. His blown save rate was very low, comparable with Chad Cordero in 2005 and 2006. His fastball exceeds 95 mph with good movement. His secondary pitch—his curve—is above average but he seldom uses it, relying instead on his heat.

Capps has amazing control. For his career, he has allowed just 1.7 walks per nine-innings and has a fastball to walk ration over 4:1.

Capps is not a great closer, but he’s a very good one. He signed a one-year contract, which should give Drew Storen enough time to mature and be ready for 2011.

The Washington Nationals will be a better team in 2010, thanks to a much better starting rotation. But without a solid bullpen, all of those late-inning leads just won’t matter. From the first man out of the bullpen to the last, the team will get quality innings from quality relievers.

Bullpens don’t win games for teams; they keep them from losing. At this point, I’m guessing they will keep the losses under 83.

And it could even get better.

J.D. MARTIN IS JOHN LANNAN REDUX

2009-10-25T07:55:00.000-07:00

[October 25th] -- In 2007, John Lannan came out of nowhere.

An 11th-round afterthought in 2005, Lannan climbed the minor league ladder quickly, going a combined 12-3, 2.87 before finishing the season with the Nationals where the 22-year-old went 2-2, 4.15.

Since then, Lannan has won 18 games and been the team’s presumptive ace.

Man, if the Nationals could find just one more pitcher to come out of nowhere, 2010 could be a fun year to watch.

Ladies and gentlemen, meet J.D. Martin, the next John Lannan.

It’s not that Martin wasn’t a known commodity in the baseball world. The Cleveland Indians chose the high school pitcher in the first round of the 2001 amateur draft, using their compensation pick for the departed Manny Ramirez.

Martin had tremendous control and a good fastball with movement when he began his minor league career. In his first two seasons in the Indians organization, he went a combined 19-6, 3.17, allowing 2.5 walks per nine innings while striking out 11.

In other words, he was dominant.

However, his strikeouts all but disappeared in 2004 as he toughed through an 11-10, 4.39 season in the high-A Carolina League. His strikeouts per nine innings dropped to six and his arm felt sore towards the end of the season.

There were signs of an arm injury, but it was hoped that an off-season of rest would help Martin regain his strength.

And it seemed to. Ten games into the 2005 season, Martin was 3-1, 2.38 and was again striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings. However, the sore arm returned and he was forced to under go reconstructive “Tommy John” surgery that July.

He returned late in 2006, and over the next three years crafted a record of 15-8, 3.31, with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

However, in 2008, his last year with the Indians, he was primarily a reliever; the team didn’t feel he was good enough, or strong enough, to be a starter any more.

Believing that he could still be an effective starter, Martin left the Indians as a six-year minor league free agent and signed with the Nationals last winter.

He quickly became the team’s premier minor league pitcher, going 8-3, 2.66 in 15 starts with Class-AAA Syracuse.

But he was not the same pitcher anymore. Martin began pitching to contact and threw strikes, lots of them. With Syracuse, he struck out six per nine innings while walking just one, an amazing walk to strikeout ratio at any level.

In nine minor league seasons, Martin had compiled an outstanding record of 56-28 with a 3.29 ERA and yet he’d never had the opportunity to pitch in a major league game.

That changed, however, when the Nationals’ Scott Olsen was lost for the season with a arm injury and the team desperately needed a fill-in arm.

Enter J.D. Martin.

In 15 starts in 2009, Martin went 5-4 with a 4.44 ERA. He showed he had the ability, the tenacity, and the desire to succeed at the major league level. He didn’t do any one thing particularly well, yet by the time he walked off the mound, he more often than not had his team in a position to win.

But let’s look at his internal numbers and compare then with the aforementioned Lannan, the Nationals’ best starter:

Hits per 9 innings
Lannan: 9.2
Martin: 9.9

Homers allowed per 9 innings:
Lannan: 1.0
Martin: 1.6

Walks per 9 innings:
Lannan: 3.0
Martin: 2.8

Strikeouts per 9 innings:
Lannan: 3.9
Martin: 4.3

Baserunners per 9 innings:
Lannan: 1.35
Martin: 1.42

In virtually every category of statistical significance, the two were nearly identical. It would seem that the Nationals have indeed found their second out-of-the-blue starting pitcher.

But the news just gets better, just as Martin did as the season progressed.

In his first four starts, Martin gave up 13 runs, 24 hits, and five walks in just 16 innings. Since then, however, he might have been the best pitcher in the rotation. Take a look at Martins numbers compared to Lannan’s in their last 11 starts:

Innings Pitched
Martin: 60
Lannan: 63

ERA
Martin: 3.71
Lannan: 4.95

Hits per nine innings
Martin: 10.1
Lannan: 10.2

Walks per nine innings
Martin: 3.0
Lannan: 2.6

Strikeouts per nine innings:
Martin: 2.1
Lannan: 2.0

Batting average-against:
Martin: .264
Lannan: .263

On-base percentage allowed
Martin: .330
Lannan: .332

Slugging percentage allowed
Martin: .455
Lannan: .437

Percentage of strikes thrown:
Martin: 63%
Lannan: 63%

Line drives allowed
Martin: 17%
Lannan: 25%

Team record in starts
Martin: 8-3
Lannan: 4-7

Once Martin gained some experience at the major league level, he was able to stay with Lannan pitch-for-pitch over the last third of the season. So what’s the difference between team “ace” John Lannan and Martin?

About 55 career starts.

Should Martin repeat his rookie effort in 2010, the Nationals will have two very solid—though not spectacular—young pitchers who should be the No. 3 and 4 starters for the team once Stephen Strasburg makes it to the big leagues and Jordan Zimmermann returns from injury.

Most of us have scoffed at former general manager Jim Bowden’s penchant for signing minor league pitchers off the scrap heap. It just never seemed to work.

This time, however, Bowden was right.

J. D. Martin might not be a sexy choice for the rotation in 2010, but he is a solid choice. He outpitched the team ace for most of 2009; what else does he have to prove?

NATIONALS FUTURE PEGGED TO AMATEUR DRAFT

2009-10-19T13:53:00.001-07:00

After years of neglect and abuse, the Washington Nationals’ farm system is beginning to look like, well, a farm system again.

When the Montreal Expos moved here in the fall of 2004, the farm system was completely bare; all of the best players—Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay—had been traded by then general manager Omar Minaya.

Of that class of 2004—those having never played in the majors—not a single player has made it to the major leagues as a productive full-time player. Just two, shortstop Ian Desmond and pitcher Colin Balester, might one day become credible major leaguers.

The Philadelphia Phillies, on the other hand, had 10 players in 2004 that are today quality major leaguers: Ryan Howard, Placido Polanco, Vincente Padilla, Pat Burrell, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, Carlos Ruiz, Cole Hamels, Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick.

Now, there is no guarantee that Chris Marrero, Josh Smoker, Michael Burgess, Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen and Destin Hood will even make it to the major leagues, little alone make a difference.

But one thing is for sure, the last three or four drafts couldn't be any worse than what this franchise has had prior to 2005.

Would you have liked the 2009 Washington Nationals to look like this?

CF— Curtis Granderson
RF—Aaron Rowand
2B—Chase Utley
3B—David Wright
LF—Garrett Atkins
CA—Brian McCann
1B—Prince Fielder
SS—Brian Roberts (original position)
And this starting rotation wouldn't have been too bad, would it?

Barry Zito
Jeremy Bonderman
Dan Haren
C.C. Sabathia
Cole Hamels
I would think that this version of the Washington Nationals would have played well into October.

The Nationals wouldn't have had to trade for, or sign as free agents, any of these players. They only needed to choose them in the baseball amateur drafts from 1998-2002. Each player listed was available in one of the first four rounds of each draft after the Expos made their selection.

Incredible, huh?

In the first round of the 2000 draft, the Expos chose pitcher Justin Wayne , bypassing Chase Utley and outfielder Rocco Baldelli. In 2001, with Aaron Heilman, Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman, Noah Lowry and David Wright waiting to be chosen, Montreal went with pitcher Josh Karp .

In 1998, infielder Josh Mc Kinely was chosen ahead of Brad Lidge, Jeff Weaver, C.C. Sabathia and Aaron Rowand. Three rounds later, first-baseman Clyde Williams was taken by the Expos instead of Barry Zito and Mike Maroth.

2002, however, was the worst .

With one of the top picks in the draft, Montreal chose Clint Everts , a pitcher who is today still toiling in the minor leagues. In that same first round, however, they could have chosen Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Jeremy Hermida, Khalil Green, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Jeff Francoeur or Matt Cain.

There can be only two possible conclusions for the team picking lumps of coal for their Christmas stockings when candy and toys were still available.

Either general managers Jim Beattie (1995-2000) and Omar Minaya (2001 - 2004) were stupid and couldn't find a major league prospect in a barrel of fish or they were told by ownership to draft "signable" players rather than the best player available.

I vote the latter.

Jeff Loria was so cheap and difficult to work with that the city of Montreal withdrew its funding for Labatt Park, the stadium that was to keep the team in Quebec.

The following season, no English speaking radio station would carry the Expos’ games for the price that Loria demanded. Today, Loria is the owner of the Florida Marlins, and his continual fire sales show he’s still a bottom line, and not a finish line, type of owner.

Both owners, then, saw the amateur draft as a drain on resources, and told the team's general manager to only draft players that would sign within a particular financial parameter. That kind of draft philosophy destroyed the team's farm system, once one of the richest in the major leagues.

Justin Wayne (#1, 2000) is out of baseball having fashioned a 25-34, 3.97 career record. He started only eight games in the major leagues. Tom Mitchell (#5, 2000), the guy chosen over Garrett Atkins, never played professionally. Josh McKinley (#1, 1998), the 11th player chosen, never made it above 'AA' and retired in 2004.

Josh Karp was the poster-boy for the team's low-budget draft philosophy.

Karp, a 6'5" right-hander, was drafted in the 8th round out of high school by the Atlanta Braves in the 1998 draft. Not wanting to sign for 8th round money, he played three years for UCLA (8-3, 4.29 in '99, 10-2, 5.08 in '00 and 5-2, 3,26 in '01).

Though he did strike out 10 batters per nine innings during his college career, he also walked four and gave up 8.5 hits. He was considered a mid-round pick at best. Yet the Expos, having the 6th pick of the draft, weren't about to pay a bonus that could reach three million dollars.

They instead chose Karp, a player they assumed would be so grateful to be a first-round pick that he'd sign quickly and easily. He signed all right, and for very little money. But he lasted just four seasons in professional ball, going home to Bothell Washington in 2005 with a 24-32, 4.74 record.

That #6 pick could have brought the Expos Jeremy Bonderman or David Wright or Aaron Heilman or C.C. Sabathia or .... well, you get the idea.

Thank goodness the Washington Nationals are starting to right their ship. No, things aren’t perfect, but the minor league system now has 15-20 players that you would expect to have at least an average major league career.

The Justin Wayne's and Josh McKinley's and Josh Karp's of the world are now a footnote in the team's history. Sure, the players they sign may never make it to the major leagues. But they also might end up being stars for years to come.

That's what’s fun about the draft.

MARRERO ON TRACK FOR A 2011 DEBUT

2009-10-16T11:14:00.000-07:00

[October 16th] --When the Washington Nationals selected Chris Marrero with the overall 15th pick in the 2006 amateur draft, the team hoped they were drafting a high school slugger who was polished enough to make it to the majors quickly, possibly by 2011.

Were they right? At this point, it sure seems like it.

The Nationals had closely followed Marrero in high school and were very impressed, but they weren’t sure he’d still be available when their turn came. As a junior, Marrero had batted .379-13-25 for Monsignor Pace High in Miami, and was considered one of the best rising seniors in the nation.

However, a hamstring injury suffered early in his senior year forced Marrero to open up his stance, and his production dropped significantly.

Now the Nationals weren’t sure he was a risk worth taking with their first round pick.

A pre-draft workout at RFK Stadium, however, allayed the team’s fears. Marrero was pain free and able to close his stance, and the ball began to rocket off his bat. He hit several balls over the fence that day, two into the upper deck.

The Nationals were sold and made Marrero their top pick of 2006.

He signed quickly, garnering a $1.6 million bonus and reported to the Nationals Gulf Coast League team as a starry eyed 17-year-old. He did well, hitting .309 in 89 at-bats. Marrero impressed the organization in 2007, batting a combined .275-23-88 for low-A Hagerstown and high-A Potomac.

Marrero returned to Potomac in 2008 and started slowly, but had his numbers up to .250-11-38 in 70 games before breaking his leg in a slide into home, ending his season.

Never an Adonis physically, Marrero spent that off-season running, lifting weights, but more importantly, avoiding fast food. Countless stories came out of Viera Florida this spring about Marrero’s chiseled features and a renewed desire to succeed.

Playing for Potomac for a third year, the now 20-year-old batted .287-16-65 before finishing the season with ‘AA’ Harrisburg where he held his own against pitchers three and four years his elder, hitting .267-1-11 in 75 at-bats.

Scouts project Marrero to be a power hitter capable of hitting 30 homers at the major league level, but as good as he is offensively, he has real problems in the field. A natural third baseman, he was shifted to the outfield because of Ryan Zimmerman, but was just too slow to catch balls hit into the gap.

He is now the team’s first baseman of-the-future, but he continues to have problems defensively. He committed 20 errors in 2009 and there is no sign that he’ll ever be anything more than adequate in the field.

Marrero is part of the Nationals’ Arizona Fall League team and in two games thus far is 3-7 with a double and a homerun against baseball’s top young pitchers.

Chris Marrero is just 20, he’s playing Double-A ball, he’s part of the elite Arizona Fall League, and he will likely be arriving at Triple-A Syracuse sometime late next season.

If he continues to perform like he has, he just might get his cup-of-coffee with the Nationals next September and then—who knows?—he could see some significant playing time in 2011 at the major league level.

Or, he might not. Not everyone is Ryan Zimmerman, who was mature enough—and good enough—to start in the majors at 21.

But whether or not he makes it in 2011 really isn’t important. The hope four years ago was that Marrero would be in the position to play with the big club in five years, and it looks like that’s exactly where he’s going to be.

My guess is that the Nationals—unwilling to put Marrero in a position to fail—will extend Adam Dunn’s contract, giving the kid from Miami a little more time to polish his game.

By 2012, the Nationals should be in a position to contend for a playoff spot, and Chris Marrero should be ready to help them get there.

ZIMMERMAN IS BEST OF CLASS OF 2005

2009-10-14T21:07:00.001-07:00

As much as I love the Washington Nationals, I think it’s fair to say that they haven’t done much right since moving to D.C. five seasons ago. Too many of the team’s personnel decisions have backfired, leading to several very long, very ugly, very bad years.

One of Jim Bowden’s first moves was to trade a part-time outfielder and a poor-hitting shortstop to the Angels for the volatile Jose Guillen. At the time, it seemed like a steal.

And it was, but not for the Nationals.

Guillen gave the Nationals one good year (.283-24-76) in his two seasons in Washington. Juan Rivera has been a fixture for the Angels since the trade and batted .287-25-88 this year while playing a flawless right field.

And that light-hitting shortstop, Maicer Izturis, has been the Angels’ starting shortstop since the trade, batting .300-8-65 in 2009 and making just four errors all year.

I could go on, but really, why make your day any worse?

Within that boiling cauldron of mismanaged player transactions, however, is one very good, very lucky move that the Nationals can bank on as the cornerstone of future seasons.

That would be, of course, Ryan Zimmerman.

Oh, wait; you want another lousy personnel decision?

Jim Bowden didn’t like outfielder Endy Chavez very much and traded him to the Phillies for Marlon Byrd, an outfielder they didn’t like very much. He played for two seasons with Washington before leaving via free agency; the Nationals didn't want him anymore.

He signed with the Rangers that winter.

This season, Marlon Byrd batted .283-20-89 while providing the Rangers with solid defense.

Do you think the Nationals might have liked to have an outfield of Josh Willingham, Marlon Byrd and Juan Rivera this year?

All they have to show for the loss of those three players is minor-leaguer Michael Burgess, who the Nationals drafted in the 2007 amateur draft as a compensation pick for the loss of Guillen.

Okay, back to Zimmerman.

When the Nationals picked fourth in the 2005 amateur draft, they chose from a pool of over 2,000 high school and college amateurs. Just three players (the three picks ahead of the Nationals) were unavailable.

How did the Nationals do? In the words of that ancient knight from "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade," they "chose wisely."

Let’s take a close look at the top five picks of that draft and see how the Nationals fared compared to the other four teams:

Justin Upton was the top pick of the draft, going to the Arizona Diamondbacks. In his first full season in the major leagues this past year, Upton hit .300-26-86 with 20 steals. However, he is a defense liability in the outfield, which is surprising considering his excellent speed. He committed 12 errors and had just four assists.

Upton is only 21, however, and will get better. While he may not end up being the best player in the draft, the Diamondbacks will never be disappointed with their pick.

The Kansas City Royals, however, are another story entirely.

The Royals had the second pick in the draft and were in need of a third baseman. Kansas City had three top players to choose from: Alex Gordon from the University of Nebraska, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ryan Braun out of the University of Miami.

Gordon was considered the best of the three and the Royals used their second pick to select him.

Four years later, it seems that the Royals made a big mistake.

Gordon’s first professional season came in 2006 when he tore up the AA Texas League, batting .325-29-101 with 22 stolen bases for Wichita. He made it to the majors the next season, but so far has had difficulty hitting major league pitching.

This past season, Gordon batted just .232-6-22 in 49 games and has had problems defensively—he had a .920 fielding percentage in 2009.

His scouting reports still say that Gordon will one day be an All-Star. He may eventually turn it around and reach his potential, but I wouldn’t count on it.

The Seattle Mariners had the third pick in the draft and selected catcher Jeff Clement from the University of Southern California.

After a cup of coffee in 2007, Clement played 66 games with Seattle in 2008, hitting .227-5-23. He spent all of last year in the minors, batting .288-14-68 with Tacoma before being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates late in the season in a seven-player trade. In 27 games, Clement hit just .224 for AAA Indianapolis.

My guess is that the Mariners realized that Clement didn’t have the future of a No. 3 draft pick and traded him before his value dropped any further. While taking him third overall made sense in 2005, in hindsight, it seems he isn't a top-three talent.

Former general manager Jim Bowden was very high on Zimmerman, and happily took him with the fourth pick in the draft. After a 73-game minor league apprenticeship in the summer of 2005 (.331-12-41), he was promoted to the big club that September and has been the starting third baseman for the Nationals ever since.

Zimmerman had an outstanding rookie season in 2006, hitting .287-20-110 while playing a flawless third base. He was the odds-on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year Award that winter, but finished a few points behind Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez.

I’ve never fully understood why so many players have a “sophomore slump,” but Zimmerman was certainly no exception in 2007, batting .266-24-91 while committing 23 errors at third base. His 2008 wasn’t much better. Injuries sapped his power and malaise seemed to overtake him early in the year; he ended the season hitting .283-14-51

There was some concern among Nationals fans that perhaps, just perhaps, Ryan Zimmerman was going to be a good—not great—player for the Nationals. Now, there is nothing wrong with being a complementary player, but that does become a problem when that player is considered “The Face of the Franchise.”

The 2009 season, then, was to be a watershed year for Ryan Zimmerman. After four years, we would all have a pretty good idea of the type of player he was going to be.

And without a doubt, he showed us.

Zimmerman had that breakout year we’d all been hoping for, hitting .292-33-106 while his defense improved so much that he seems to be a lock for this year’s Gold Glove Award.

I think there is little doubt now that Zimmerman is in fact “The Face” and, at just 24, will only get better.

The last of the top five picks was Ryan Braun, who might be the best pure hitter of the bunch. Since joining the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007, Braun has averaged .308-34-108 with a .937 OPS.

However, because his fielding was so atrocious, the Brewers were forced to move Braun from third base to left field. While his defense has improved in the outfield, it is a situation of going from horrible to acceptable.

There is little doubt that if Ryan Braun played in the American League, he’d be a designated hitter.

There were other quality players selected after Zimmerman. Toronto’s Rickey Romero (13-9, 4.30), Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki (.297-32-92), Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce (.240-43-110) and Jacoby Ellsbury of the Boston Red Sox (.301-8-60) were all first-round picks and have all made an impact at the major league level.

However, each of them has a noticeable flaw in their game. Romero has a problem throwing strikes. Bruce is another Adam Dunn—a low batting average, high strikeout hitter who is a poor defender. Ellsbury lacks power.

Tulowitzki is a fine all-around player, but his statistical splits show that much of his offensive production comes when playing in the high altitude of Coors Field. Take a look at how his numbers change playing at home:

Hits: +11
2B: +3
3B: +3
HR: +2
RBI: +22
BB: +1
K: -26
AVE: +59
OBP: +49
SLG: +88
TB: +30

Zimmerman’s home and away splits are almost even. His batting average this season was 11 points higher on the road. His on-base percentage was two points higher at home and his slugging percentage was six points higher on the road.

In other words, he’s basically the same player at home and on the road, unlike Tulowitzki.

So, what if the Nationals had the first pick, and knew then what we know now about the abilities of these first-round players. Who would they have taken?

Certainly, none of the picks taken after Zimmerman are any better. Gordon and Clement are disappointments, at least thus far in their careers.

That leaves the choice between Zimmerman, Justin Upton and Ryan Braun.

Braun has too many defensive liabilities, and it’s much easier to find a quality outfielder than it is a third baseman. And while Justin Upton may surpass Zimmerman offensively—and he just might—he is a poor defender and isn’t a complete package. (Yes, I know he has tremendous potential, but his tsn.ca scouting report refers to his defense as “raw” and that he “loses focus” while in the field).

While Ryan Zimmerman wasn’t the first choice in the 2005 amateur draft, I think he has developed into the most well-rounded player of the group. Some of the others have a little more power, or a little higher batting average, or field just as well, but none of them do all of those things as well as Ryan Zimmerman does.

And, to top it all off, he enjoys playing for the Nationals and wants to stay here throughout his career.

And he’s a heckuva nice fellow, too.

Jim Bowden didn’t do much right, but in the case of Ryan Zimmerman, we owe him a debt of gratitude that can never be repaid.

CAN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG?

2008-09-28T14:30:00.000-07:00

[September 28th] -- The Nationals' fourth season in Washington has come and gone. It was to be a season of promise and hope, perhaps the bridge year between a last place team and a contender. Though I took much of the season off from blogging, I watched the team just as closely as in years past. Though it was a difficult season to watch, there was much promise and hope shining through the cracks of the team's foundation.

I have been wondering why, since the first day the team arrived in Washington, that there have been so many writers, bloggers, and fans who seemed to root for the Nationals to fail. While naysayers exist in other baseball towns, they aren't as many, nor as loud. Scribes from the Times and Post seem to revel in kicking the team when they are down, almost proudly proclaiming that the Nationals are a failure and aren't deserving of our time and money.

But they aren't the only ones. Bloggers sound a lot like my wife at times, underscoring the negatives while overlooking the things done well. Many posters at BallPark Guys and other message boards attack with the ferocity of those last 300 Spartans, willing to fight to the death in order to disparage the Nationals for succeeding generations. The attendance is too low. The prices are too high. The players aren't good enough. Certainly, there are kernels of truth in most of what they say, but why do they take delight in saying it?

Because that's how we are in Washington. Virtually every person who lives inside the Beltway is so political that it's not enough for their guy to win, the other guy has to be torn down and embarrassed in the process. If the Nationals aren't playing well, then every part of the Nationals is maliciously attacked. The team loses a game at home and sure enough, someone is complaining that the signage in the new park is lousy. We have learned from all those elected or brought in by those that are elected how best to hurt those we disagree with. Sarah Palin's daughter really gave birth to that Downs Syndrome baby, not Sarah herself. And though Republicans know that Barak Obama isn't a Muslim, that doesn't stop them from unearthing an almost unlimited supply of Indonesian documents that say he is. We just don't go after Jim Bowden; we have to attack his fiance, his drinking habits, etc.

Look, I love the Nationals. I'll agree with the team on somethings and won't agree on others. But all this clap-trap we read every day is baseball's version of negative attack ads, designed to keep the uniformed from coming to the ballpark or watching them on television. I worry that even when the Nationals begin to win and win big, there will still be that large group of naysayers who enjoy hurting that which the rest of us waited 34 years to have, big league baseball in D.C.

Were the Nationals bad in 2008? Sure, they just lost their 102nd game and now have the top pick in next year's amateur draft. But how bad, or good, would they have been if they could just have remained healthy? Lets look at what might have happened, based on the team's starters playing a full season:

1B: Nick Johnson: .260-25-90

2B: Ronnie Belliard: .287-17-65

SS: Cristian Guzman: .310-9-55

3B: Ryan Zimmerman: .283-26-110

LF: Elijah Dukes: .270-26-90 (25 SB)

CF: Lastings Milledge: .270-16-80 (27 SB)

RF: Austin Kearns: .250-13-60 (worst case scenario)

C: Jesus Flores/Paul LoDuca et. al.: .265-14-55

That, plus a healthy pitching staff and the Nationals would have won 75 games, plus or minus.

The Nationals had a tough season, but for justifiable reasons.

Time to look ahead to next season.

RESURFACING FOR A MOMENT

2008-07-19T16:05:00.000-07:00

[July 20th] -- Okay, I haven't posted for ... um ... gee, I dunno, half a season or so? The time off - not having to look under every rock for a baseball boogie man - has been joyful. That said, that doesn't mean that I haven't cared about the team like I have in years past.

It seems that this year has also taken its toll on Nationals' bloggers. Many in my rookie class ('05) have gone dark so I wasn't the only one to walk away this year.

You know, it's funny; you itch to blog when you're not, and wish you didn't have to when you are.

On to baseball.

The Nationals are doing very well this year. Really. They are currently 36-61 and are 17 games out of first, 11.5 games out of 5th place. Throughout the mainstream media, the Nationals are being pummeled for being the worst team in the National League.

Well, sure they are.

But a healthy team - in my 45 years of watching baseball I have never seen more injuries to a single team in a single year - would easily have another ten wins, and a record of 46-51 seems about right for this team at this point in the year.

All of the injuries have helped the team immeasurably. We now know that Jesus Flores, Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge and several young pitchers can play at the major league level now. Young players have been given the opportunity to play every day and some have shown promise while others have not. We now have a better idea about our top forty or so players than we did in spring training. We'll also get - let's say that current standings are the final ones - the top pick in the 2009 amateur draft. From 1990-2001, 9 of the 12 number one picks (Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Darin Erstad, Kris Benson, Phil Nevin, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Gonzalez and Joe Mauer) have had quality careers (though Hamilton is starting late) and so one would think that the Nationals have a good chance to come away with a star. The players selected after 2001 haven't had enough time to prove themselves, though Justin Upton and Delmon Young sure seem to be on their way.

The point is, the Nationals could have the top pick next year and still be a few games over .500 thanks to all those injured players returning next year.

A couple of injuries might have - in the long run - helped the Nationals more than they hurt. Certainly, the team would have been much better with Nick Johnson, but I think Jim Bowden has finally come to the conclusion that the Nationals can't count on him any more and will look elsewhere for a starting first baseman in 2009 regardless of the year remaining on his contract or potential interest from other teams.

Also, Nationals' fans - and some within the organization - have questioned Chad Cordero's ability to be a major league closer and have thought that Jon Rauch could do a better job if given the opportunity. This year - Rauch's first as a closer - he's allowed just 41 hits in 47 innings while walking 7 and striking out 43. Take from all those numbers that he's allowing just 1.01 runners per 9 innings while striking out 8.1 and walking just 1.39. Compare that to Cordero's numbers last year when he allowed a whopping 1.39 runners, 7.4 strikeouts and 1.39 walks per 9 innings.

That said, Cordero saved an average of 37 games from 2005-2007, so though his internal numbers aren't great, he's still a quality closer. That means that the Nationals will be able to trade one of their two closers this winter for a bat (it'll probably be Rauch because Cordero will have to prove that he's healthy, and that takes time).

It's been a tough year, but a productive one, for the Washington Nationals. I believe that if the core of Jesus Flores, Ronnie Belliard, Cristian Guzman, Ryan Zimmerman, Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge and Austin Kearns return in 2009, stay healthy and produce as expected (and the team finds an answer at first), the Nats will have an offense that'll rank in the upper half of the National League. I also think that the Nats' starting pitching will be very solid if they sign one star or near star pitcher as their top starter and then fill out the rotation with John Lannan, Jason Bergman, Tim Redding and one of the kids (I'm not counting on Shawn Hill anymore).

How good could the team be? If the law of averages finally smiles upon the Nationals (fewers injuries, more career years by the players), the Nationals could win 85-90 games.

I'm not counting on it, mind you, but I'm thinking the talent is there is someone takes all those pins out of the team's voodoo doll.

Tudorian Careers

2008-04-11T13:16:00.000-07:00

[April 11th] -- John Tudor was a pretty darn good major league pitcher. He won 117 games over twelve seasons with a very sharp 3.27 ERA. I was living in St. Louis when he was traded to the Cardinals from the Pirates in a four player trade that featured George Hendrick going to Pittsburgh. Though I thought it a good trade, I saw Tudor nothing more than a #3 pitcher. Over the previous two seasons, he went 25-23 with an ERA in the mid threes. I expected another near .500 effort in 1985. When he began the year 1-7, 4.40, I figured the 30 year old just wasn't that good. Cardinal fans were screaming for Whitey Herzog to get him out of the starting rotation. The St. Louis Cardinals were just too good for him.

Then something interesting happened. He found the flaw that was causing the problem and fixed it. Over the remainder of the season, Tudor went 20-1, 1.44, and led the Cardinals into the World Series against the Kansas City Royals. In his last five seasons (injuries cut short his career), the southpaw went 44-18, 2.78. In his first six years, he was just 69-54, 48-46 if you don't count that turnaround year in 1985.

The point is, he showed no real promise early in his career; he was a .500 pitcher and looked like he would always be just that. Then he had some sort of epiphany, and he finished his career as one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues.

Right now, the Nationals have a couple of starting pitchers - Matt Chico & Jason Bergman - who are underwhelming Nationals' fans. Both have shown flashes of competency over their short careers, and could "get it" at some point and fix those faults that make them only pseudo-effective. Or they both will end up having careers where 12-11, 4.40 years are the norm and are welcomed by the Nationals. For now, that kind of production works. In the future, when the team matures and is finally ready to contend, it may not be enough. We'll just have to wait and see.

In 2005, the Nationals had only one or two minor league pitchers that anyone thought had much of a chance to make an impact with the big club. A quick glance this morning found 14 pitchers who could make a difference: Ross Detwiler, Colin Balestar, Jack McGeary, Josh Smoker, Jordan Zimmermann, Colton Willems, Tyler Clippard, Garrett Mock, Mike O'Connor (I still like him), Shairon Martis, Jhonny Nunez, Adrian Alaniz, Hassan Pena and Cole Kimball. If just 30% of prospects (real prospects) become solid major leaguers, then the Nationals have 4-5 starters that will take their place in the Nationals' - or someone else's via a trade - rotation.

The Nationals are going to be just fine. Shawn Hill, Bergman, Chico, Odalis Perez and Tim Redding are good enough for now. In time, we'll be able to tell if any of them will be like John Tudor and turn an average career into a stellar one. It'll hurt on the field until we all find out, but after all, none of us expected that much from these guys this year. 75 wins. 85 wins. Somewhere in between. Three years from now, no one will remember, and no one will care.

Stay the course.

Now, while I'm not worried about the wins and losses, I must admit that the 15,000 or so empty seats the last few games is bothersome. Those same whispers about Washington not being a baseball town that we hear today were around forty years ago. I can remember dozens of games in the late 1960's where the attendance at RFK was 7,000 or less. So after losing two teams in ten years, yes, I am a little skittish when it comes to fannies in the seats. With a new stadium and a long lease, the team isn't going anywhere. That said, I don't want us to become a Cincinnati type team with a moderate payroll and inability to keep our free agents because we don't draw well.

fFrankly, I was worried that the Nationals wouldn't be able to draw any more than 35,000 fans a night to watch the Marlins play. I hope - I pray - that the Braves series will average at least 30,000 per game.

The Nationals try to stop a seven game losing streak tonight. Against Tim Hudson. Change of waking up tomorrow morning and finding the Nationals 3-8? Oh, I dunno -- 75%?

ACHIEVING THE POSSIBLE

2008-04-09T21:41:00.000-07:00

[April 10th] -- There weren't many certainties heading into the 2008 season for the Washington Nationals. About the only one was a guarantee that they weren't - weren't - going to start the season 1-8 and thoroughly embarrass both themselves and their fans.

And they didn't. After nine games, they're 3-6.

Much, much better. Good job, guys.

Seriously, globally, the Nationals have yet to make me want to push the panic button. Individually, however, there are some concerns. Why is it, for example, that Jason Bergman can look like Bob Gibson for the first four innings and Hoot Gibson thereafter? And is Austin Kearns ever going to become a powerful right-fielder? Come August, they could ultimately become two of the Nationals' best players. I'm just saying ......

Each year, all of us take a look at the team's roster and predict what could happen. The problem is that our predictions are based on what the players could do and not what they probably will do. For example, here was my predictions for the '69 Senators (I know, I gotta start throwing some of this stuff away):

1B: Mike Epstein - .285-25-100

2b: Bernie Allen - .260-7-50

SS: Eddie Brinkman - .240-5-45

3B: Kenny McMullen - .260-25-90

LF: Frank Howard - .300-40-100

CF: Del Unser - .285-8-60

RF: Hank Allen - .277-13-65

C: Paul Cassanova - .250-8-45

No one prediction was off by much, yet as a group, these players (with Lee Maye replacing Hank Allen in right) really didn't come close because I assumed the best case scenario for each player. Now, take a look at my predictions for this year:

1B: Nick Johnson - .285-20-80

2B: Ronnie Belliard - .280-13-60

SS: Cristian Guzman - .270-5-45

3B: Ryan Zimmerman - .300-30-100

LF: Wily Mo Pena / Elijah Dukes - .270-25-90

CF: Lastings Milledge - .285-23-85

RF: Austin Kearns - .265-24-85

C: LoDuca / Estrada - .270-12-55

Again, each individual prediction seems reasonable, but as a group, I've probably guessed too high. Come October, three of these guys will probably do better, three will do worse, and two will do about what I figured.

And if that happens, the Nationals aren't going to have a great season.

Around the Minors: Michael Burgess his hitting just .200 for Hagerstown but has already hit two homers. He's struck out 9 times in 20 at-bats (ouch!). Bill Rhinehart continues to surprise. After hitting .299-5-43 for Vermont last season, he's at .318-1-6 in 22 at-bats for the Suns. The problem is Rhinehart is the same age as Ryan Zimmerman and is still playing 'A' ball. Andrew LeFave (also 23), obtained in the Ray King trade last year, is hitting just .083 in 2008. He has a career .348 career average in two minor league seasons.

YOUNG GUNS

2008-04-06T14:36:00.000-07:00

[April 6th] -- Yeah, another bad game. Sure, the Nationals have now lost four games in a row after winning their first three.

No worries.

Any of us who went into 2008 with a "counting wins" perspective might be in for a very long summer. The team is still building and in some cases, still guessing as to who will - and won't - make a difference in the coming years.

We still have to look for stories-with-the-story to get a true sense of the team's progression towards respectability.

Like John Lannan's effort in an otherwise dismal 3-0 loss to the (not much better than us) St. Louis Cardinals.

Lannan, who was clearly the best Nats' starter in Spring Training, gets called up from Columbus and is asked to stop the team's three-game losing streak. Well, the Nationals lost, but he was about the most blameless player in a blue hat on Sunday.

Lannan pitched 6.2 innings, giving up 7 hits, 2 runs while striking out 4. Sixty-three percent of his pitches went for strikes and he left the game with a rather nifty 2.70 ERA. So, I'm thinking, what else does this guy have to do to become a permanent member of the Nationals' rotation? No question, he's still going to have his ups and downs, but let's give him some experience at the major league level so he'll be ready to make a difference next year, when things could really be fun.

But Lannan wasn't the only Nats' lefty to impress on Sunday.

Ross Detwiler was lights-out in his first start of the year for the Potomac Nationals. Detwiler (who pitched only 33 innings last year) threw 5 shutout innings against Salem, allowing just 3 hits and a walk while striking out 7. "A man among boys" was the way the Salem Avalanche broadcaster described the situation.

I understand that Jim Bowden wants Detwiler to succeed before promoting him, but if he's not going to be challenged in Potomac, send him north to Harrisburg.

So we've got these two guys - both young, both 6'5", both 200 pounds - and both will be ready to help the Nationals in 2009. But there is someone else who could be ready to make a difference as well.

Mike O'Connor, another [fairly] young, tall lefty.

O'Connor was the only one not considered to be a future major leaguer, and yet he has pitched extremely well both in spring training and in his first start with the Clippers, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out four in five innings. Remember, before he was injured, he was one of the Nationals most consistent starters in 2006. In his first 12 starts - through the end of June - O'Connor had a record of 3-4, 3.39 in 12 starts, allowing just 49 hits in 58 innings while striking out 45. Over his next four starts, O'Connor gave up 22 runs in 15 innings (13.29 ERA) and ended the year 3-8, 4.80. I think it safe to assume that's when his elbow problems began.

So if O'Connor reverts to form - and perhaps he already has - and can once again get major league batters out, the Nationals could be sitting on a treasure trove of left-handed pitching, especially if Matt Chico's second start was an aberration.

Time will tell.

Let's get back to Matt Chico for just a second. Though his numbers didn't look very good in that first start in Philadelphia, and nothing looked very good against the Cardinals, there are still some very positive signs for the kid. Sure, he's given up 14 hits and 7 runs in 11.1 innings, but he's also struck out 9 and walked just 3. That's 7 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per 9 innings. Last year, he averaged 3.98 walks per 9 innings and just 4.75 walks per 9. He still gives up too many hits, but - regardless of his numbers thus far - he seems to pitching much better in 2008.

This-N-That: Felipe Lopez has started four straight games and the Nationals have lost four straight games. Coincidence? Probably. His defense in left wasn't bad at all - much better than Alfonso Soriano at first - but he continues a downward spiral with his bat. He's now batting .188 (3-16) with a .278 OBP and 5 strikeouts. Certainly, it's a small sample, but I'm not seeing any value here, both trade and on the field .... After a slow start, Ryan Zimmerman has raised his batting average to .290 with 6 hits over the weekend. Amazingly, he has cut down his strikeouts this year, fanning only 3 times in 31 at-bats (once very 10.3 at-bats). For his career, he's struckout once every 5.2 at-bats .... Paul LoDuca has looked really bad at the plate so far (.167) but he's yet to strikeout. I thought this to be an aberration, but no - LoDuca has excellent plate discipline. Over his career, he's averaged just 43 strikeouts per 550 at-bats .... Has anyone else begun to moan and groan when Willie Harris (1-12) comes to the plate? .... It's obvious that Joel Hanrahan wouldn't continue to pitch as well as he did this spring, but really, he's not too far away. Though he has a 6.00 ERA, he's given up just 2 hits in 3 innings while striking out 5. I think Manny Acta is very pleased with his work so far.

BACK TO REALITY & IT'S GOOD TO BE BACK

2008-04-04T10:02:00.000-07:00

[April 4th] -- I thought it prudent to wait to begin blogging about the 2008 season until after the Nationals lost a game. It was important to lose a game in Philadelphia. All too often, teams that start 4-0 or 7-0 begin to press so hard to keep their streak alive that when they finally lose, they really lose. Case in point (though it's a much larger sample) was the Nationals' 2005 season when they - either through luck, or smoke or mirrors -started the season 50-31 and rolled into the All Star game in first place. They didn't have the offense, or the defense, or the pitching, to have won those many games in the first half. I think we all felt that sooner or later, things would resolve themselves.

And so they did. The Nationals finished 31-50 and limped home with a .500 record.

So, thirty-seven innings into the season, we really don't know much more than we did during that last week of spring training. The great majority of journalists and bloggers are predicting anywhere from 75-85 wins, and that sounds about right.

I think it's great that players on the Braves and Phillies have remarked that the Nationals seem much improved. They are right, of course. How much improved still remains to be seen. There is no question, however, that the new players have a far higher upside than those they replaced. So they could be much better than anticipated if they all play up to their potential.

How much better? In the perfect world, this is how good the Nationals' offense could be:

Cristian Guzman (SS) - .275-7-50

Lastings Milledge (CF) - .289-24-75

Ryan Zimmerman (3B) - .290-30-110

Nick Johnson (1B) - .280-20-90

Austin Kearns (RF) - .270-24-88

Pena/Dukes (LF) - .265-25-75

Ronnie Belliard (2B) - .275-13-55

LoDuca / Estrada (C) - .270-10-50

That's 153 homers for the starters, more than the entire team hit last year. If Kearns and Dukes/Pena do well when they return from the DL, it could even be more than that. And I'm not sure about Milledge; he could amaze us all as the season progresses.

The starting pitching staff could be equally potent - again - if health issues stop dogging the Nationals:

Odalis Perez: 12-10 4.00

Matt Chico: 12-11 4.22

Tim Redding: 13-8 3.66

Jason Bergman: 11-9 3.88

Shawn Hill: 10-5 3.44 (assuming he returns in time)

These five could amass 57 wins this year, a good number compared to last year's 39 wins by the all of those starters. Add those 18 extra wins to last years 73 and the Nationals could end up with a record of 91-72. Of course, there is no way that every player is going to play healthy or up to expectations.

So lets cut those 18 extra wins in half.

Voila! The Nats will finish 2008 at 82-78.

The wild card in all of this is how well the team's minor league pitchers will do this year. I mean, did you see that starting rotation for Columbus? Mike O'Connor. John Lannan. Tyler Clippard. Colin Balestar. Garrett Mock. Lannan of course, will join the Nats over the weekend. If these pitchers can fill the holes in the team's rotation due to injuries or poor performance, those 82 wins seem a certainty.

Of that group, O'Connor was the only one not considered to be a future major leaguer, and yet he has pitched extremely well both in spring training and in his first start with the Clippers, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out four in five innings. Remember, before he was injured, he was one of the Nationals most consistent starters in 2006. In his first 12 starts - through the end of June - O'Connor had a record of 3-4, 3.39 in 12 starts, allowing just 49 hits in 58 innings while striking out 45. Over his next four starts, O'Connor gave up 22 runs in 15 innings (13.29 ERA) and ended the year 3-8, 4.80. I think it safe to assume that's when his elbow problems began.

So it's not like any success O'Connor might have this year would come as a surprise. He's already had success - good success - at the major league level. If he returns to form, the Nationals could then have five - count 'em, FIVE - major league caliber pitchers at the AAA level.

Who said that all that pitching help is years away?

First Impressions of 2008:

Jason Bergman (8.84) and Matt Chico (5.06) don't have very impressive ERA's, but I think they both pitched well in their first outings of the year. One of Chico's three runs given up came via a mistake by Lastings Milledge in the outfield, and another run was a one-pitch mistake that was hit for a homer. And Jason Bergman was lights-out for five innings before he tired and lost command of his pitches. His new change looked good. I'll bet that both of these guys will end the year with 10-12 wins and an ERA near 4.00.
Even though Ryan Zimmerman is batting just .167 and has just three hits, the Nationals could easily have a record of 1-3 without him. Had he started this way in 2005 or 2006, I'd be worried. No more. He's proven he's a stud.
I have no idea if Odalis Perez will ever pitch that well again for the Nationals this year, but boy, I hope he does.
How stupid will the Nationals look if Jesus Flores is hitting .350 or so when they send him down to Harrisburg to "get better?" All he did in his first game was go 3-4 with 2 doubles.

SEVERING THAT LAST REAL LINK IS HARD

2008-03-29T12:19:00.001-07:00

[March 29th] -- It's a few hours away from the first Nationals' game at their new stadium, and I am feeling both fantastic as well as forlorn.

About as I suspected I'd feel.

Those of you who have been regular readers of The Beltway Boys know that I haven't posted for more than two months. That may same strange to some of you, since I have posted almost every day since the team's inception in late 2004. Why blog about the bad times, why write about a bright future if you don't cover it when it finally arrives?

Because I know longer have a connection to Washington baseball.

Regular readers know that I live in Idaho, and haven't resided inside-the-Beltway since the mid 1980's. My guess is that I wouldn't recognize much of what I left behind. There is - or was - two things that connected me to the Nationals, even from 2,500 miles away. First, the "Curly W" on the team's cap is the same one from my past. I watched that same hat - or a version thereof - on my television in the late 1960's while Ray Scott and Warner Wolf described the goings-on to me. Secondly, I had watched perhaps 150 games at RFK, and I know every cinder block, every concrete ramp, every parking lot like the back of my hand. My brother even took me to stadium when it was little more than a construction site. So I could relate to a Nick Johnson home run as well as I could one of Mike Epstein's. A Nook Logan sprint-and-catch was no different from what Del Unser did out in center field. Chad Cordero trudged to the pitcher's mound from the bullpen using the same path that Darold Knowles used (except for those couple of years where the relief pitchers were delivered in a gleaming white Lustine Chevrolet Corvette).

So it's as if I've been at RFK these past three summers.

Today, the new park opens and I have no connection to it or the neighborhood it's helping revitalize. It is as foreign to me as those ballparks in Philadelphia or Cincinnati. Suddenly, those 2,500 miles seem an even greater distance than they did just a few months ago.

Yes, I'll resume blogging daily one day soon, but until then, I wanted you to know why I've been away. Someone once said that you can't go home again, and I understand that. My hometown of Washington D.C. is the one I lived in growing up in the 1960's and '70's.

I'm happy for the players and proud of the team and giddy for the city. I can't wait to visit again.

HOW GOOD IS BURGESS?

2008-01-18T17:23:00.000-08:00

[January 18th] -- First, sorry I haven't posted in a while. Daily posting was number two on my New Year's resolution list, but the real world isn't a perfect place in terms of allowing said resolutions to be fulfilled. We have been given the opportunity to adopt our special-needs foster son. We've had him since he was a month old (he's almost 3 now) and - assuming the paperwork goes through - it looks like he'll become the newest member of Nats' Nation. Any of you who have gone through the process knows how difficult - and time consuming - it can be.

That said, we're thrilled at the opportunity.

On to baseball.

How good will Michael Burgess be? Your guess is as good as mine, but if you use his stats in the Gulf Coast League this past year as a yardstick, he should do very well indeed.

I was looking up a player on the 1994 GCL Expos and noticed Vlad Guerrero's first year stats. They were impressive, and from there he matured into one of the most feared hitters of his generation. But let's take a look at his numbers compared to Burgess' when extrapolated out to 550 at-bats, a full Major League season. See what you think:

1994 - Guerrero: R:98 -- H:176 -- 2B:53 -- 3B: 12 -- HR:20 -- RBI:102 -- BB:44 -- K:73 -- Ave:.314 -- OPS:.928

2007 - Burgess: R:94 -- H:184 -- 2B:26 -- 3B:13 -- HR:34 -- RBI:137 -- BB:107 -- 159 -- Ave:.333 -- OPS:1.059

The two players had very similar first years, though there were some differences. Guerrero's power wasn't as developed as Burgess. Vlad had 27 more doubles but 14 less homers. Burgess walked a lot more though he struck out more often too. Guerrero's .366 OBP was very good but pales in comparison to Burgess' .442.

I'm not suggesting that Burgess is the next Vlad Guerrero. What I am saying is that Burgess has the potential to be a great player. After being initially over matched when he was promoted to Vermont at the end of the season, Burgess found his stroke and did well in 19 games. Again, based on a full season, Burgess produced: .286-24-80.

Looks like the Nationals' outfield will be even more crowded in the very near future.

Certain Uncertainty: Usually, a baseball team heads into spring training with a few question marks and a good deal of certainty. For the Nationals, the offense is so questionable that it could be one of the better, or one of the worst, offenses in the National League. As of today, Ronnie Belliard is about the only "sure thing" in the lineup.

Will it be Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young at first? And if it's Johnson, will he come close to repeating 2007's numbers?

Will Felipe Lopez rebound from a poor 2007, or for that matter will he even start? He'll be playing in a smaller park this year so if he does rebound, a .275-18-60 is not out of the question. And if he doesn't rebound, will Cristian Guzman play enough defense to make his offense palatable?

It may seem strange to list Ryan Zimmerman as a question mark, but really, no one knows if he'll have another "nice" year, something like .280-25-100, or will he have that breakout year we've all been waiting for, say .310-35-120?

Wily Mo Pena has the talent to hit .280-45-120. But will he? And if he doesn't, will Jim Bowden settle for .260-22-75 or will Pena be benched in favor of Elijah Dukes, another player who may - or may not - hit 35 homers and drive in 100 RBI's. And what of Lastings Milledge? As the only real center fielder among the bunch, Milledge has more opportunity to grow slowly as a starter than the others. But he's already hit at the Major League level, so a .285-25-85 effort would surprise no one. And Austin Kearns has shown the ability to hit 25 homers and drive in 100 runs, but he just can't seem to do it year in and year out. Based on past history, 2008 will be the year he shows up and plays well every day.

Paul Lo Duca is perhaps the biggest question mark with the least importance; it really won't matter if Lo Duca hits well or not. He just has to catch the ball behind the plate.

The Nationals could end up hitting 200 homers, or they might barely break 100. Spring Training won't tell us anything, but we'll know something by July 1st.

IF HEALTHY, WHITNEY CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE

2008-01-04T11:48:00.000-08:00

[January 4th] -- When the Nationals took 3b/1B Matt Whitney in the recent Rule V draft, most of us wasn't sure what to make of it. Certainly, he had a great year in 2007, batting .299-32-113 at Cleveland's version of Hagerstown and Potomac. But with only 400 minor league games under his belt, did the Nationals really think he was ready to play at the Major League level? And with that kind of production, the Nationals must know that if he doesn't make the team, the Indians would likely jump at the chance to reclaim him for just $25,000.

And to make matters worse (for Whitney), the Nationals brought in Aaron Boone to play backup at both third and first.

The Nationals picked Whitney because he was, at one time anyway, referred to as the Indians' "next Manny Ramirez."

Whitney was chosen by the Cleveland Indians in 2002 out of high school with a supplementary 1st round pick (number 33 overall), gained by the loss of free-agent outfielder Juan Gonzalez. He was considered one of the best pure power hitters to come out of high school that year. In 45 games with Burlington (Rookie A), Whitney batted .286-10-33, an amazing power display for that level.

He was on the fast track to Jacobs Field. That is, until the following spring. Playing a game of pickup basketball at the Indians Spring Training facility in Chain of Lakes Florida, Whitney broke two bones in his leg when he stepped on a sprinkler head. He underwent two different surgeries immediately and another one later that spring, wiping out his entire 2003 season. Nationals fans understand that broken legs don't heal very well -- just ask Nick Johnson.

He returned to the diamond in 2004, though he was never completely healthy over the next three seasons, batting .230-21-96 in a combined 225 games. He struck out 275 times in 816 at-bats. He was forced to walk, and run, awkwardly because of the pain in his leg, which led to other injuries in his back and neck.

No one, then, was expecting the breakout season in 2007. Whitney says it was due to being healthy for the first time since 2002 as well as a whole lot of hard work and preparation. Kinston manager Mike Sarbaugh says that in addition to his good health, he shortened his stroke in 2007 and is now recognizing pitches much better. "Last year, he head a tendency to chase some breaking pitches out of the zone that he's not doing this year (2007)".

Indians' farm director Ross Atkins said that "not having your legs in any sport is not good, especially if you're a power hitter." Whitney can now - finally - plant his leg and drive the ball deep.

The Indians moved Whitney from third to first last year to reduce the stress on his bad leg. Whitney had played both first and the outfield during high school, so the move seemed natural. Though he committed a league high 20 errors at first, the Indians were convinced that Whitney would be a solid first-baseman at the Major League level.

Whitney, a 6'4", 220 pounder, bats right-handed and hits with a lot of power. That said, the 24 year old also strikes out a lot. He struck out 38% of the time at Kinston in 2006, though he was able to decrease that number to 22% last year.

If he remains healthy, Whitney could be a solid power hitter in the future. In his two healthy seasons, he would have averaged .296-32-110 over a 500 at-bat season. In his three injury plagued seasons, those same 500 at-bats would have produced only .258-21-81. Looks like he just might be a "player" one day.

So if Whitney doesn't make the team next spring, and the Nationals don't want to offer him back to Cleveland for $25,000, the only option left is for Jim Bowden to make a trade, sending a prospect to Cleveland so the team can send Whitney to Harrisburg and let him continue to mature. What will he cost? Something along the lines of a Glenn Gibson I would guess, the cost of obtaining Elijah Dukes.

One thing's for sure, though. If the Nationals can keep Whitney in the system, they'll own the two best first baseman in the South Atlantic League last year, Whitney and Andrew LeFave.

Either way, it'll be interesting to watch Whitney next spring.

TOO MANY OUTFIELDERS, TOO LITTLE TIME

2007-12-30T19:06:00.000-08:00

[January 2nd] -- Sigh. January 2nd is always a depressing day for me. After seemingly day after day of holidays and fun and food, the real world - and all its problems - returns. Unless you're a student or a banker, the next holiday is in May. And that is a long, long time away. Guess all we can do is concentrate on baseball and the upcoming season.

The Nationals roster seems more up in the air to me that it did this time last year, which is weird since the team brought in, what, 40 starting pitchers into Spring Training? I can live with the uncertainty at catcher (how much time is Jesus Flores going to get?) and first (gee, Nick Johnson is hurt?) but this whole outfield thing is bothersome. Unless something changes in the next couple of months, the Nats are going to arrive in Viera with four starting outfielders, of which only one - Austin Kearns - has ever played in the big leagues on a consistent basis. The other three, Wily Mo Pena, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, all deserve the opportunity to play every day based on what they've shown over the past couple of years (Dukes' .190 average doesn't particularly bother me). But the outfield glut doesn't stop there. By the end of the year, the Nationals might have two more guys - Chris Marrero and Justin Maxwell - who might deserve the opportunity to show what they've got, and another - Michael Burgess - who just might be the best of the lot, could be less than a couple of years away.

So what's the team going to do?

I wouldn't have a problem with the Nationals going north with those four guys if even one of them was a lefty. There are too many outfielders who are all right-handed. That's not a good thing regardless of how well they all hit.

At this point, I have to believe that just three of the four are going to make the team.

Left: Wily Mo Pena: Jim Bowden has been after Pena for too long, and he's too cheap, and too talented not to play every day, and he's proven in limited action that he can produce if given a chance. With the Nationals, he would have hit .293-32-88 in a 550 at-bat season. There is no reason to believe he can't do that in 2008. At the very least, the Nationals have to let him prove that he can, or can't, be a real slugger at the major league level. At 26, he is still young and hasn't reached his potential. I'm not even sure anyone knows exactly what his potential is. .280-40-120? Quite possibly.

Center: Lastings Milledge: Again, Bowden has lusted over Milledge, in his case since his days in high school. The only thing that kept Milledge from have outstanding numbers in 2007 was limited playing time. Based on a full season, Milledge would have hit .272-21-87. He'll be 23 next year and might be another player the Nationals build around. He's not going to be a slugger, but he will likely blossom into a .285-27-90 type player. He has to stay too.

Right: Austin Kearns: Yet another of Bowden's "boys." Kearns is the question mark in the Nationals outfield, but he has several things going for him. First, he plays the game right. Second, he's still cheap, though that's going to change in the coming years. And third, he's due. The Reds bandbox inflated his numbers while with Cincinnati, and RFK deflated his numbers since he's played in Washington. The new park should be just about right for Kearns. I wouldn't be surprised if Kearns finally becomes the offensive player that we all expected in 2008, hitting .270-25-90 or so while playing a superb right field.

That said, I think Kearns is a year away from a big trade. He'll be 28 this season, and will see his contract jump from $5 million in '08 to $8 million in 2009. My guess is that the Nationals will trade Kearns, perhaps package him with a prospect or two, and get a significant starting pitcher to help with a playoff run in 2009. That would leave right field available for ......

Elijah Dukes: Of the "fab four," playing Dukes at Columbus for a year makes the most sense. Though Dmitri Young is his designated mentor in Washington, I'm sure the team can find someone to watch over him at 'AAA.' Sure, he would have hit 31 homers and walked 103 times in a full season last year, but his .190 average shows the need for seasoning. Rather than force him to become an angel at the major league level, why not let him grow up in a less threatening, less volatile atmosphere?

I believe that the kid can become a decent person and superb player. The photos at the top of this post are of Dave Parker. While with the Pirates, he was a bad boy, perhaps the baddest of all. There is a picture of him smoking a joint in the dugout of a Spring Training game in the early 1970's. He drank a lot, fought a lot, and scared a whole lot of people. Tired of the troublesome outfielder, the Pirates shipped him and his declining skills off to the Reds, who told him to shave, shape up and stop screwing around. He had three of his best years with Cincinnati before ending his career with the Athletics.

The point is, if Dave Parker could turn himself around, so can Elijah Dukes.

With Kearns traded for pitching, what could this outfield produce in 2009?

Pena: .275-35-110 ---- Milledge: .300-28-90 ---- Dukes: .280-38-110

I know, if if if if if. But that is certainly better than Ryan Church, Nook Logan and Austin Kearns, right? Add those three guys to Ryan Zimmerman and [hopefully] Nick Johnson, and the Nationals have at least the chance of chasing a playoff berth.

But for now, at least, let Dukes play in Columbus, baseball's version of a Borg maturation chamber.

I don't demand that the Nationals contend in 2009, but I do demand that they at least have the opportunity to -- assuming things go there way.

Now, this entire exercise in guessing who goes where doesn't address the predominance of right-handed batters in the Nationals' lineup. I don't have an answer, though I am truly worried that Jim Bowden is perfectly willing to field this out-of-balance lineup. Rob Mackowiak was a great addition to the outfield and certainly can fill in against the nastier right-handed pitchers.

That said, without a few lefty hitters that we can count on, it's going to be difficult to field a productive offense night in and night out.

Coming up next: an in depth look at Matt Whitney. His is a particularly interesting story.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS

2007-12-21T10:40:00.000-08:00

[December 20th] -- Like other Nationals' bloggers, I'm going to be taking the next week off unless something unexpected happens. The last two Christmas seasons, I spent more time at my computer than with my wife and children, something they reminded me of a few days ago. Sure, the Nationals are important in my life, but until Stan Kasten kisses me goodnight and gives me Christmas gifts to die for, my family comes first.

Here is hoping that all of you have a wonderful holiday season. I'll be back after Christmas with daily posts. I haven't done a lot of that in the past few weeks because - frankly - I don't know what to make of the new team. Other than Ryan Zimmerman, I'm just not sure who is going to play where and how often. Hopefully, all this will play itself out before Spring Training.

Cheers.

ANOTHER PART, ANOTHER QUESTION

2007-12-10T12:52:00.000-08:00

[December 10th] -- Just when we think we know what's going to happen, Jimbo surprises us.

Over and over again.

After Barry Svurluga suggested that the Nationals were close to signing Paul Lo Duca last week in Nashville, he (and the team) backed off when it appeared that the Toronto Blue Jays were willing to give him a 2-year deal. Suddenly, the Nationals seemed ready to ride the E-train (as in Johnny Estrada) into the new park.

A few days later, it's Lo Duca.

Really.

Lo Duca, 35, is a Arizona State University grad who jumped onto the scene as a rookie with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2001 when he batted .320-25-90 with a .917 OPS. It goes without saying that he never again came close to producing those type of numbers. No one expected him to succeed like he did; he was a 29 year old rookie who spent his first 8 years as a professional in the minor leagues.

Why did he choose the Nationals? As Sally Field might say, "he liked us. He really really liked us."

While there has been no specifics from the Nationals, most seem to believe that Jesus Flores will remain with the team, catching 30 or so games next year. That doesn't make a bit of sense to me. Either play the kid 130 games and let him learn on the job, or send him to Columbus and let him play there every day. Flores isn't some 19 year old who has years to learn his craft. He's 23 and he doesn't want to end up being as old as Lo Duca was before he becomes a starter at the major league level.

Having Paul Lo Duca as the team's starter for a year neither hurts, nor helps, the Nationals. He's a stop-gap, nothing more. What worries me is this: What's better -- a losing team full of nice, decent guys, or a winning team full of schmucks?

I have very strong memories of 2005, that Jeckyl-and-Hyde season, where Jose Guillen's antics were often the lead story in the local papers. If you listened closely, you could hear the hail of hosannas that were shouted throughout the Beltway community after Guillen became a Seattle Mariner.

No, Paul Lo Duca isn't a bad guy, but he's certainly not a family man either (to the consternation of his wife). Lastings Milledge isn't a bad guy, but it's going to be a few years before he matures into an adult. Elijah Dukes? He could be a bad guy -- he could be like Sloth on The Goonies, chained to a chair in the basement in the new park, allowed out of his dungeon only to hit long homers for the Nationals. And Tyler Clippard? His photo in a Yankee uniform makes him look like an All-American boy, but his nude MySpace pic (cropped just so to hide his dangling participle) tells a different story.

Lastings Milledge + Elijah Dukes + Tyler Clippard + Aaron Boone - Brian Schnedier - Glen Gibson - Jonathon Abeldegado (or whatever) - Ryan Church = what? Good? Bad?

There is no doubt in my mind that the Nationals are a better team today. If everyone does what they are capable of, and if Nick Johnson returns at 100% as he swears he now will, then this is a particularly potent lineup:

1B: Nick Johnson - .285-25-90 or Dmitri Young: .285-15-80

2B: Ronnie Belliard - .275-14-60

SS: Cristian Guzman - .250-5-40

3B: Ryan Zimmerman - .295-28-110

C: Paul Lo Duca - .275-8-50

And these four outfielders - if given the chance to start - could produce as well:

LF - Wily Mo Pena - .270-35-90

CF - Lastings Milledge - .285-25-90

RF - Austin Kearns - .270-24-85

?F - Elijah Dukes - .250-35-90

That's a good lineup if - IF - there are no surprises in terms of injuries and continuity. There is a decent chance that this lineup could help lead the Nationals to a near .500 record in 2008, assuming of course the starting rotation continues to grow and mature.

But will the team be loved? Will 2008 become StarSearch or Star Wars? Will there be a Dr. Smith in the clubhouse sabotaging our Jupiter II? Will every headline include words like "Fight" or "Clubhouse Cancer" or "Arrested?"

While I doubt this will be the case, I still worry that Nationals' might be reminiscing about the "good old days," the days of Jose Guillen.

TRIVIA: Lastings Milledge got his name because his parents decided he was to be the last child they would have, hence "Lastings."

That's cute, right?

TRYING TO FIT ALL THESE PIECES TOGETHER

2007-12-06T11:27:00.000-08:00

[December 6th] -- Looks like things are winding down in Tennessee and we're beginning to get a better idea of what this team is going to look like come Opening Day.

Or not.

Four outfielders for three spots, three infielders for two spots, three first baseman for one spot and a Rule V draftee who plays third base and has to stay with the team the entire year - or else - .....

See? Aren't things clearer, now?

Oh yeah, and no catcher, at least not yet.

And the great majority of the team's starting lineup are right-handed hitters.

I'm seeing this team - at least right now - as a jigsaw puzzle with too many pieces; no way you can fit the pieces together until the extras are removed. I know less about this team, about Ryan Zimmerman's injury, about everything, than I did a week ago.

One of my neighbors owns five Kia Spectras, one for each of his driving-age family. It looks very strange over their in his driveway - the colors are all similar - but that doesn't stop his family from getting to where they need to be every day. It looks strange, but it works. Same applies to the Nationals, at least as they are presently constituted. There are a bunch of Kia Spectras on the Nationals right now, all about the same color, all with about the same accessories and mileage. Will my neighbor ever buy a Honda or a Chrysler or a Ford? Maybe. Will the Nationals get rid of some of their spare parts - mostly righties - and create some balance?

My years of baseball experience (my first baseball game featured some guy named Maris) tell me that Jim Bowden is just too smart to take this team into the new stadium March 30th.

My guess is that this was only the beginning, but that the end might not come until Spring Training, maybe later.

Right now, I can only pick one certain starter, and he might not be a certainty if his hand surgery turns ugly (remember how we were told that Nick Johnson would be ready for Spring Training '07?). Nick or Dmitri? Ronnie, Felipe or Cristian? Ryan or Aaron? Wily Mo or Lastings or Elijah or Austin? Flores? Who knows???

Thanks, Jim. You've certainly cleared everything up.

MEETINGS ALMOST OVER, ARE NATS ALMOST DONE?

2007-12-05T19:29:00.000-08:00

[December 6th] -- I dislike uncertainty with a passion. Take the Nationals' outfield as currently constructed, for example. Four starters for three positions. It is almost inconceivable that any of these four players won't start come April, yet someone is going to sit on the bench - or even more possible - spend part of the season at the 'AAA' level.

Austin Kearns isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He is considered one of the nicest and most decent players on the team. It wouldn't look good for the Nationals for Kearns to be playing in Kansas City or St. Louis when his replacement, Elijah Dukes, gets locked up for yet another indiscretion. Prediction for 2008: .270-25-85

And Wily Mo Pena isn't going anywhere either. He just signed a contract extension (2 years / $7 million) and is considered by most (me included) to be the only real slugger among this group. Besides, Jimbo loves him just like he loves Austin Kearns. Nope. Barring some reverse-epiphany next spring on his part, Pena is the Nationals' anointed slugger. Prediction for 2008: .267-32-100

So who's going to play center field?

Elijah Dukes is a center fielder. He's a 6'2", 235 center fielder. He's a center fielder built like a fullback. Now, sure, he only hit .190 in 184 at-bats last year, but to be fair, he had a few things on his mind. Playing a full year, he would have hit 30 homers and 65 RBI's. Interestingly, he was also on pace to walk 100 times, giving him a .190 batting average along with a .318 OBP; a very strange combination. Defensively, he didn't make an error in 52 games. What could he do if given the opportunity to play every day? Well, if he does what he did last year but raises his batting average to .250 or so, he'd likely hit 35 homers, drive in 100 RBI's and walk 100 times.

Isn't that enough to earn him a starting position?

Lastings Milledge is a more compact 6'0", 190 lbs. His 2007 numbers were better than Dukes. Interestingly, both Milledge and Dukes had 184 at-bats last year.

Dukes: .190-10-21 / Milledge: .272-7-29. He made four errors last year. Milledge will likely hit for a higher average with fewer homers but about the same number of RBI's assuming they bat in the same place in the lineup. Playing a full year, Milledge would have hit 21 homers and drove in 99 runs. Pretty impressive.

So which one starts? One (Milledge) is ready to play everyday. Dukes might be ready, might hit 40 homers but also might end up in jail.

I believe Jimbo when he says all four will compete for a starting job next year, but really, the only players doing the fighting will be Dukes and Milledge.

And I just can't say at this point as to which one I want to win.

I'm very happy with the Tyler Clippard trade; in fact, I think the Nationals received far more in value than they gave up. Jonathan Albaladejo did a fine job at every level for the Nationals last year, but remember, he was released by the Pirates earlier in the summer. Maybe he's figured "it" out, but maybe he hasn't.

Clippard has given up 10.5 baserunners per 9 innings during his minor league career, a very very good number. Even better, he fans 9.5 batters per 9 and crafted a very impressive .236 batting average-against.

Certainly, his 3-1, 6.33 record with the Yankees isn't stunning, but it is deceiving. Heading into his final two starts, he was 3-1, 3.60. His undoing was all the walks that came in his final three starts.

He's just as likely as anyone else on the team to earn a spot in the starting rotation.

And we got him for a reliever that cost us nothing. Impressive.

Now, we just have to see what happens at catcher.

FORGET WHAT I SAID ABOUT DUKES

2007-12-03T18:16:00.000-08:00

[December 3rd] -- First, sorry it took so long to get on the Dukes trade. I spent the afternoon with a 102 degree fever and my finger on the ballparkguys refresh button watching the excitement unfold.

I wrote after the Milledge trade that there was no chance the Nats would go after Elijah Dukes. Just shows how little bloggers know.

First it was Elijah Dukes for Chad Cordero. Then it was Jon Rauch. Then it was "some guy to be named later," giving the impression that we didn't give up anyone of value for the .... um .... eccentric .... no, that's not it .... mercurial .... no, that's not it either ..... oft-arrested? ..... outfielder. Of course, it ended up being Glen Gibson, one of the many young pitchers who impressed this season at rookie-level Vermont.

There seems to be two camps in the Nat-o-sphere about this trade, just like the Milledge trade but with more passion on the negative side. The "I'm cool with it" camp likes Jim Bowden's attempt to collect young, high ceiling players for relatively little cost. The "WTF" community is mad because either 1] the team seems bent on collecting all of the available baseball-bad guys or 2] "The Plan" is a cover story for the team's penny-pinching ways.

I choose curtain #3, where you'll find Jim Bowden on the phone trying to make another deal.

Look, we're not exactly dealing from a position of power yet. The Nationals are - finally - better than an expansion team but aren't anywhere near being a middle-of-the-road franchise. The only way to get better without being fiscally irresponsible is to make a lot of these high risk, high reward deals.

Fast forward three years from now. Brian Schneider is a 34 year old defensive backstop with waning skills and Ryan Church is a 32 year old outfielder who is still a very good complementary player. Hopefully, possibly and perhaps even probably, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge will become near stars, combining to hit .300 with 60 homers and 220 RBI's. The Reality, however, is that one of them - and I don't know which - will become a star, a .300-35-120 kind of guy. The other will either be out of the league or little more than a Church-like complementary player. So what if the trade ends up becoming Gibson, Church and Schneider for a star that'll still be playing in 2017? That's still a pretty good deal.

So, there you go; the Elijah Dukes trade is Beltway Boys Approved.

Some believe that the Dukes' deal is a precursor to other trades that will send one of the four starting four outfielders elsewhere. I don't think so. More likely, the Nationals will head to Spring Training and tell Austin, Elijah, Wily and Lastings, "The three best players start."

Yes, I'm worried about Dukes' attitude, but then again history has shown time and time again that 'problem players' often become model citizens. Dave Parker was the biggest ***** in the major leagues in the 1970's an 1980's. There was a famous photo of him smoking pot in the Pirates dugout in Spring Training. He was traded to Cincinnati, cut his hair and beard, an became one of the most feared power hitters in the league.

So Dukes could become an all-star, or he could become an inmate. Time will tell.

How good can these guys be? Here is what these four outfielders are capable of:

Wily Mo Pena: .275-35-120 --- Elijah Dukes: .290-30-100 --- Lastings Milledge: .310-25-100 --- Austin Kearns: .270-25-90

I'm just saying .....

So far, so good. Gibson wasn't a "nobody," but we've got a guy now just like him by the name of John Lannan.

He won't be missed.

UPDATE: Shows you again that bloggers are nothing more than fans with computers. After I just said that all four outfielders will battle it out for playing time this spring, and after Jim Bowden said exactly the same thing earlier this evening, reports are now surfacing that the Nationals are shopping Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez around for a starting pitcher, someone like Mike Pelfrey. That would guarantee both newbies a starting job in the outfield and Mr. Belliard (I'm too sleepy to remember if ours is Ronnie or Rafael right now) would be the team's starting 2nd baseman (which I love, he's the team's best option there).

I'd miss Kearns; we know what he can do while the Nationals' version of the "Lost Boys" haven't done diddly yet in the majors. Come to think of it, that starting three could just as easily hit 100 homers as they could hit 40.

I dunno. That would be a little scary - and uncertain - heading into the new park.

MILLEDGE? INCONCEIVABLE.

2007-11-30T11:03:00.000-08:00

Note: Somehow, a picture of Lastings Milledge that I placed in this story turned into an image of George Bush flipping the reader off. I can only assume that the picture I used was taken from a site that doesn't like you to use their images and was able to change the image somehow. I apoligize to those who saw it.

[November 30th] -- Wow. I didn't see this one coming.

The Nationals on Friday traded Brian Schneider and Ryan Church to the Mets for Lastings Milledge.

Now, you didn't notice it, but 15 minutes passed between these two paragraphs because I just don't know what to think about this deal. At first I didn't like it, but since virtually every Mets message board and blogsite are being scorched by angry Met fans venting about this deal, perhaps it's promising after all.

Okay, deep breath.

We all know that Brian Schneider's "up and coming" offense never came. After signing his multi-year deal in 2005, he's been a liability at the plate. His defense is good, very good, but not as good as most believe it is. If Jesus Flores can play as well in 450 at-bats in 2008 as he did in 180 at-bats last year, then the Nationals won't miss Brian one bit, though I'd think the bench will call the games, at least for the foreseeable future. Regardless, the team now desperately needs a quality veteran backup catcher.

I will miss Ryan Church. He's never played up to his potential and could easily hit .275-23-88 in New York if given a chance. Perhaps he'll play better on a bigger stage. I just wish that if he had to go, he'd have gone to another league, or division. I don't want Ryan to beat the Nationals in their new park in 2008.

Now, on to Milledge. Here's how the kid's numbers would have looked based on a full 550 at-bat season (he had 187 at-bats last year): Runs: 81 -- Hits: 150 -- 2B: 27 -- 3B: 3 -- HR: 21 -- RBI: 87 -- Ave: .272 -- OBP: 341 -- SLG: .446.

Basically, if Milledge never gets better, he's going to produce like Church did last season. Of course, he's a kid and until last year, he was untouchable.

But he's going to get better, or at least that's what Jim Bowden believes.

Here is what TSN.ca says about Milledge:

Assets: Uses an incredibly quick bat to line the ball to all fields with occasional power. He's a fast runner who can steal some bases and is a strong all-around outfielder.
Flaws: Swings a little too freely, especially susceptible to breaking stuff. Has been impatient in the past, but is learning to take some walks. His attitude has come into question.
Career potential: Can be an all-star if he keeps a level head.

Some thoughts about the trade *at first blush*

The Mets had to trade for Brian Schnedier because they didn't have any catching prospects ready in the minors because they let Jesus Flores go in the Rule V draft to the Nationals (hee hee)
This ends any trade talk about Elijah Dukes or Rocco Baldelli IF Milledge stays with Washington -- I would't put it past Bowden to now package Milledge with other players / prospects and make a block-bluster deal next week.
Milledge, despite his speed, isn't considered a premium center fielder, which, if I recall, is how they viewed Ryan Church, right??
This deal appears to free up a lot of salary which is nice as long as that wasn't a consideration in making the deal.
I'm saddened that Church and Schneider won't be here to enjoy the new stadium next year. At least they'll have Citi Park to play in soon.

The press conference is coming up soon, so I'll write again after I get a feel for what Jimbo is thinking. Until then, If Milledge blossoms into a superstar, then it's a great deal. If he's another "toolsy player" that goes the way of Tony Blanco ......

UPDATE: Here is what a Mets blog reported about Omar Minaya's press conference:During the call, Minaya said…

He and Nats GM Jim Bowden had been discussing this deal for a while.

Schneider will be his every-day catcher.

He checked around with other clubs, and, from what he can tell, trading Milledge will not impact whether or not he can acquire a starting pitcher from another club. Milledge did not fall out of demand, it’s just that the Mets have many other desired players to complete a deal. He had a very close, personal relationship with Milledge, and it was very difficult, emotionally, to trade him.

He does not feel Milledge’s value has changed much in the last 12 months, though he is sure he’d have been worth more had he come up last year and hit more. Either way, he is very happy to get two good players.

He has always felt he needed to acquire a catcher like Schneider, who is ‘big on defensive.’ These two players give the team balance, on both sides of the ball.

Church allows them to essentially go ‘with two center fielders.’ As of now, he views Church as an every-day, starting right fielder at the start of next year, who is under control for four years, whereas Milledge is still developing, and under control for five years.

Milledge would not have been guaranteed a starting job this coming spring training, though he is very confident he will eventually develop in to a very good player.

His goal is to win a championship, and this trade helps make them better offensively and defensively.

During the call, Schneider said he is looking forward to the opportunity, and to be on a winning team and playing in New York. He looks forward to working with the pitching staff. His favorite thing is to throw out runners at second and helping the staff as best as he can.

Asked to comment on John Maine and Oliver Perez, who he has hit against, he noted that he caught Maine while in Japan, and he’s already plotting how best to work with them. He’s excited.

Schneider has text messaged with David Wright, who is excited to have him, noting that Wright is very excited to get back to work and win. He hesitated to describe himself as a firey guy, but he knows he is capable of motivating a pitching staff, and he does not intend to come in and step on people’s toes right away.

Lastly, during the call, Church said he is thankful to the team for bringing him over, and to be on a team with a year-in and year-out chance to be in the playoffs. Church is able to play all three outfield positions, and is very comfortable in right, since it is where he played during most of his minor-league career. He is very excited to be a part of New York, and be part of a team with so much talent.

More coming .....

YOUNG'S TRADE SLOWS POSSIBLE T.B. / D.C. DEAL

2007-11-28T14:02:00.000-08:00

[November 28th] --The Minnesota Twins traded pitcher Matt Garza to Tampa Bay for outfielder Delmon Young (there are other minor characters involved in the trade -- the biggest, at least to Nationals fans, is infielder Brendan Harris). I never heard rumblings about this deal yet the AP says it's been in the works for weeks.

So much for being inside-the-loop.

This trade does impact Jim Bowden and the Nationals during next week's winter meetings. What made either Rocco Baldelli or Elijah Dukes available was Delmon Young in Tampa's outfield, along with Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Johnny Gomes.

Young, Dmitri's younger brother, fills the hole left by Tori Hunter, meaning the Rays no longer have extra outfielders to ship to Washington. Upton and Crawford are staying in Tampa, so the question becomes who takes over the other outfield spot. Basically, they have Baldelli, Dukes and Gomes available for one position.

Gomes has showed he is a tremendous 4th outfielder but really isn't a starter, and the Rays wouldn't dare trade Dukes on the chance that Baldelli will once again not complete the season healthy, and the Rays wouldn't dare trade Baldelli on the chance that Dukes continues to have "problems."

My guess is that both players go to Spring Training as co-starters with the assumption that at some point along the way, the team will be left with just one player, be it because of injury or jail time.

I think this deal means that Ryan Church remains the team's center fielder.

And that's not a bad thing.

GUILLEN AND BOWDEN AND BALDELLI AND DUKES AND ....

2007-11-27T10:45:00.000-08:00

[November 28th] -- Jose Guillen.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!!

Not since Frau Blucher has a name caused so much angst and fear.

Blucher!

Naaaaaaay!!!!!!

But of course, that's a horse of a different color.

Okay. I'll stop.

The Kansas City Royals are denying they are close to signing embattled Mariners and former National, Angel, Athletic, Red, Devil Ray, Diamondback and Pirate outfielder Jose Guillen. That means they are indeed close to signing him; they probably don't want the other team in the hunt - the Orioles - to get panicky and up the ante.

It's a good sign that the Nationals are no longer in a position to have to sign road-kill like Jose Guillen. Guillen, who has averaged .274-21-86 over a full season, must now try to spin a bad temperament along with a possible steroids suspension. The only teams willing to take a chance on someone like him are organizations that have no hope of drawing real free agents (Royals) or organizations that are just plain stupid (Orioles).

That said, I still see Jose Guillen as "the one that got away." I really believed that Guillen was going to be the centerpiece around which the Nationals were going to be built. The team quickly found out, however, that while Guillen was a good teammate when his team was winning (50-31 first half), he was the devil incarnate when his team lost (30-51 second half).

I have little doubt that Austin Kearns will thrive in the new park, providing a consistent .275-22-80 and solid defense in right. Jose Guillen, on the other hand, will continue to perplex his current team. and keep a lookout for his "next" new team. Kearns is the right guy at this stage in the Nationals' evolution.

No news is .....: Does the lack of any substantive news coming from the Nationals cause you any concern so close to the winter meetings? I guess the quiet can be taken to mean that the Nationals aren't planning any major moves this off season, meaning that the team intends to fill their needs from within.

I don't think that's the case, however.

It's been my experience that an abundance of rumors usually signals a lack of moves during the winter. I think what we're seeing - or hearing - is the calm before the storm. Perhaps Jim Bowden is so busy talking trade that he doesn't have any time to spread rumors. GM's are good at leaking trade rumors to the press to give the impression that they are busy trying to better their team. How come no deals were completed, Jim? Gee, he says, the other GM's were just asking too much.

This is just speculation mind you, but I really believe that the Nationals are going to pull off a major trade, perhaps more than one, between now and Spring Training. Look for Jimbo to package Ryan Church and/or Chad Cordero and perhaps one of the team's young guns at Vermont for a big-time pitcher and a lower level prospect. If he is able to pull this off, he isn't going to be able to trade for an established power hitter. That's why I think our next center fielder is going to come from Tampa Bay, though I don't know if it's going to be Rocco Baldelli or Elijah Dukes. A healthy Baldelli will replace Ryan Church's numbers save a lower OBP and a higher batting average. He won't cost much but neither will he make the team better. Dukes is the wild-card. He'll cost more, but also has a much higher upside than Baldelli. If he pans out - and stays out of jail - Dukes could eventually team up with Wily Mo Pena and Ryan Zimmerman as a very potent 3-4-5 heart-of-the-lineup. They could combine for 110 homers and 300 RBI's for the next decade.

Of course, Dukes and Pena could also never reach their potential and combine for 40 homers and 150 RBI's, not nearly enough production to help the Nationals.

The Nationals know they need to do something spectacular as they prepare to move into their new stadium. I think Bowden is going to the winter meetings ready to make two or three major trades but won't come home without at least making some kind of splash.

No, it won't be Johan Santana, but I won't be surprised if it's someone almost as good.

Of course, if I'm wrong I'll simply delete this post and hope your memory is as bad as mine.

NOTE: I just read Barry Svurluga's blog over at the Post and he's thinking that Cordero/Rauch is more likely to be traded than Church, though he's still a possibility as well.

19 Signings and oh my, that's a lot of paperwork: In their annual "Let's waive a bunch of minor league stiffs and then sign a bunch more" move, the Nationals signed 19 players over the past week or so. Some are names we've heard before, but most are minor league vagabonds trying one more time to make it to the bigs.

Each year, the Nationals sign a slugger and then releases him at the end of the year only to sign another before releasing him as well. First it was Mike Vento. Last year, it was Mike Restovich. Now, meet your newest minor league slugger, Luis Jimenez.

Jimenez, 26, is a 6'4", 200 lb leftie from Hugo Chavezville. Signed by the Athletics as an undrafted free agent in 1999, he's been productive throughout his career, mostly at the 'AA' level. Based on a 500 at-bat season, he's averaged .286-22-85 with a .370 OBP.

I'm curious as to where the Nationals plan on playing the first baseman. Certainly, Josh Whitesell, who has come off of two very successful seasons at 'AA' Harrisburg, will be the Columbus Clippers starting first baseman now that Larry Broadway has been set free. That would suggest that Jimenez will return to 'AA' for a third season. Whitesell's offensive numbers are similar to Jimenez' save his outstanding .425 OBP. They are the same age. Neither are considered true prospects. The Nats seems to have duplicated Whitesell here.

None of the Potomac first baseman, Steve Mortimer, Logan Sorensen or Brett McMillan, seem ready to tackle the Eastern League in 2008. Why would Jimenez sign with Washington knowing that his path to 'AAA' is blocked and that the team has no internal first baseman to play at Harrisburg?

Perhaps the Nationals may be looking to trade Whitesell this off-season?

Lots of questions. We'll have the answers soon enough.

ON BEING A BLOGGER

2007-11-26T19:33:00.000-08:00

[November 26th] -- Hello again, everyone. Here's hoping that one and all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Mine was a typical Idaho feast, light on the turkey but heavy on the potatoes.

Are you as surprised as I am at how little news is coming from the Nationals these days? I try to comment on what's really happening and not just make things up to fill space, so things are really slow right now. This time last year, there were a myriad of rumors that could be 1] scoffed at or 2] hoped for. I've mused over Rocco Baldelli, Elijah Dukes and the small chance the Nationals have of signing any significant free agents. And there's not much I can say about the whole relocation situation from 2,500 miles away.

So, until something happens -remember, the winter meetings begin next week -I'd like to take a moment and discuss blogging.

Someone left a message over at ballparkguys.com telling the group that Banks of the Anacostia had resumed blogging after a seven month hiatus. Personally, I think that is a great thing; jammingecono is a wonderful writer and an avid fan.

Many left messages listing there favorite blogs. Nats320, Nats Farm Authority and Capitol Punishment were mentioned as some of the best. One kind poster appreciated my site along with "Banks."

Several, however, seemed to believe that many of the Nats' blogs are not worth reading. One person referred to the "other" blogs, those not listed among his favorites as "substandard puffery."

First, he coined a great term. I'm trying to come up with a way to use it in my masthead. Second, it's perfectly acceptable for fans to denigrate blogs they don't like. No hurt feelings here. That said, I do wonder if blog readers understand why it is we do what we do. I mean, it's easy to scoff at things you don't understand.

I started this blog a month after the team's move became official. I had no desire to become famous (or like El Guapo, infamous) or to watch a site counter spin like my brother's speedometer on his 1971 GTO. In fact, I assumed that no one would ever read the blog.

Why blog then?

I blog for me. Certainly, I try to present the most interesting and polished product that I can, and I am gratified when my readers leave messages indicating their appreciation for my work, but in the end, I write about what interests me. I also write a lot of "I remember when" stories about both the Senators II and my time growing up in Northern Virginia in the 1950's, '60's and '70's. They have been some of my most read work.

The biggest mistake a blogger can make is when he/she begins to write for the readers. When that happens, both the tone and tenor of the blog changes for the worse. That happened to me a year ago. I was garnering 180-200 hits a day (a number that still stuns me by the way) when over a couple of months, I was able to interview both the general manager of the Vermont Lake Monsters as well as mlb.com's Bill Ladson. Suddenly, my site visits doubled and I soon became consumed with site traffic and began to write what I thought you wanted to read rather than what I wanted to write.

It wasn't too long before The Beltway Boys shot up to #6 on striketwo.net, the site that measures all of the Major League Baseball blogs. It couldn't last, however. Burnout, coupled with poor health, turned The Beltway Boys dark for several months. That and my family's resistance to the amount of time I spent at my computer.

Blogging is very time consuming. Typically, I spend 15-20 hours per week writing, editing, proof-reading and researching my stories (assuming I blog seven days a week), pretty much every spare moment I have to myself. Sometimes, we just have to take some time off to reconnect with our lives or risk losing some of those things we love so dearly.

Substandard puffery? I guess it's fair to say that each of us who blog have from time to time written stories that were short on substance because of a lack of time, or talent, or desire. But I will say that each and every team blog fills a niche in my Nationals' appetite. One makes me laugh. One makes me mad. Another has access to the team's front office. Each by itself does a decent job of covering the team, but together, in unison, the Nationals' blog-o-sphere does an excellent job of covering the team, both inside and out. When one blog has a down day, or week, the rest of the sites are there, ready to pick him (or her) up.

So, dear reader, I say that it's fair to fault us for our -- well -- faults. But remember, we spend hundreds of hours each year churning out stories that, for the most part, you can't read anywhere else. We may not always be right, but we at least do our best to cover the team and provide you multiple sources for your Nationals' news.

And we do it for free.

You don't have to like us, but please understand when we sometimes go dark for awhile because life demands we be honorable fathers and husbands, or that we sometimes produce a story that seems rushed or nonsensical because we had only 10 minutes between soccer practice and movie night with our sweetie. We're not writers. We're salesman and students and sometimes - more often than we like to admit - we're just too tired to spend two hours writing a story that too few of you read. Some days 6 of you stop by, other days it's 600. Either way, we have to be prepared for your visit.

I appreciate all of you who take time out of your busy lives to visit the Nationals' blogs. Remember, we write because we love the game, and we love the Nationals. You won't find Barry Svrluga's writing ability here, but then you won't find our passion on the pages of the Post or the Times.

Be it "puffery" or "perfection," we're here for you. We report. You decide.

Where have I heard that before???

ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL?

2007-11-18T20:54:00.000-08:00

[November 18th] -- So, I haven't been blogging very much the past week. No, let's be honest: I've been on vacation and haven't typed a word. Luckily, all is quiet on the Nationals' front. I'll be back around Thanksgiving, unless of course something extraordinary happens in the meantime.

...

There were many more trade discussions going on this time last year (none of which came to fruition, by the way). I take the quiet to mean there are many conversations occurring and real trade talks are usually kept quiet.

Look for a busy winter. Have a Happy Thanksgiving.

BALDELLI TO NATIONALS?

2007-11-08T06:56:00.000-08:00

[November 8th] -- Be careful of what you wish for.

There are several sources claiming this morning that the Nationals have been talking with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in hopes of trading for outfielder Rocco Baldelli. For the lowdown on the 26 year old, read the story below that I wrote two weeks ago.

As I pointed out, Baldelli's career numbers - based on a 162 game season - are about the same as Ryan Church, though with a little more speed and a little less on-base percentage.

One thing is for sure: if the Nationals make a deal for Baldelli, he becomes the de facto starting center fielder and Ryan Church is on his way out of Washington.

Read the story below and decide if this is a good idea or not.

----------------------------------------

[October 23rd] -- Rocco Baldelli. Sounds like a guy who grew up in St. Louis in the 1940's along with Joe Garigola and Yogi Berra. It's a great baseball name. Baldelli, however, is a modern-day man, an outfielder for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Following an outstanding rookie year, it was thought that Baldelli would become the face of the Devil Rays for the next decade. It didn't happen, and the team moved on.

Where is Baldelli going to play in 2008? Washington, maybe? Maybe. I can certainly see the logic in such a move, at least from Jim Bowden's perspective.

Baldelli, 26, is a 6'4", 200 lb outfielder from Rhode Island (he sounds more like Carl Yastremski than Berra when he talks). He had an outstanding prep career and was taken with the 6th pick in the June 2000 draft by Tampa Bay. His scouting report read like this:

"Baldelli has outstanding speed and power for a high schooler. He has great natural instincts for the game. He is an excellent outfielder with tremendous range and the ability to be where the ball lands. Projects as a 30-30 player. The only thing that is keeping him for being a true five-tool player is his throwing arm, which is only slightly above-average."

After three very-good-but-not great years in the minors, Baldelli was named the team's starting center fielder in 2003 at 21, more the result of a very bad major league team than his being totally ready for the major leagues. That said, Baldelli had a great rookie season, going .289-11-78 with 27 stolen bases. He finished 3rd in the Rookie-of-the-Year award, behind Angel Berroa and Hideki Matsui. 2004 was even better; he hit .280-16-74 in 136 games. He missed several games during the year with a variety of nagging injuries, but nothing a quiet off season wouldn't have fixed. The off season, however, was anything but quiet.

Baldelli tore his ACL while playing basketball during that off season. The surgery was successful, and he was feeling pretty good when he reported to Spring Training in 2005. While long tossing, however, he felt soreness in his throwing elbow. Within days, he was back in the operating room, this time for Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire season and wasn't able to return until June of 2006. He finished that season .302-16-57 in just 92 games.

2007 was supposed to be the year that Baldelli had a break out year, that he showed he was healthy and able to play a full season.

Never happened.

Baldelli bruised his leg in late April, and while he didn't miss any games, it slowed him down. A month later, he strained a hamstring and was done for the year. He was batting .281 when he bruised his leg, and ended the year .204-5-12 in just 35 games.

Now, it's obvious that Baldelli shares much in common with Alex Escobar and Nick Johnson in that he has unlimited talent but limited availability to play the game of baseball. He also shares something with former National Jose Guillen though. Both players were offered long term, cash-rich deals that were turned down just before their careers went down the toilet. Baldelli was offered a 5 year / $23 million dollar contract at the age of 22 after just two major league seasons. Jose Guillen turned down his deal with Washington because he was stupid. Baldelli? Well, his agent at the time was none other than Scott Boras.

Boras is no longer Baldelli's agent. Gee, I wonder why?

In total, Rico Baldelli has played in 419 games since he began his career in 2003. He has not played in 379. Basically, he was available to play half the time, which means the Devil Rays decision to move on without him makes perfect sense. Here are Tampa's top four outfielders from 2007:

Carl Crawford: .315-11-80, 50 steals [Age 26]

B.J. Upton: .300-24-82, 22 steals [Age 23]

Delmon Young: .288-13-93, 10 steals [Age 22]

Jonny Gomes: .244-17-56, 12 steals [Age 26]

A healthy Rocco Baldelli has no place to play in Tampa Bay next year. Upton and Young are both very young and haven't even begun to reach their potential. Crawford has averaged .302-15-75, 55 stolen bases since he became a starter. Gomes has averaged .245-20-54 over the past three years while averaging 100 games per season.

Baldelli, then, isn't returning to Tampa in 2008. He's still young, but his trade value is limited because of all the injuries. I mean, what do you think the Nationals could get for Nick Johnson this off-season?

So he's going to get traded, but to where? Perhaps the Nats have an interest? He is, after all, a "toolsy player," the kind of guy that makes Jim Bowden salivate.

Count on Wily Mo Pena as a lock in left, just as Austin Kearns is a lock in right. Justin Maxwell has shown he has a bright future in the major leagues, but not just yet. And Ryan Church? Well, we all know how the team feels about him.

It wouldn't take much to bring Baldelli to Washington. But would he be that much of an upgrade from Ryan Church?

Here is Baldelli's average major league season based on his yearly average of 640 at-bats:

Runs: 94 -- Hits: 181 -- 2B: 31 -- 3b: 7 -- HR: 19 -- RBI: 85 -- SB: 22 -- BB: 32 -- K: 122 -- Ave: .282 -- OBP: .324 -- SLG: .443

Pretty impressive, over all, though his walks and on base percentage are poor. He normally batted second, third and fifth in the Rays' batting order.

Now lets take a look at Ryan Church's career averages, based on those same 640 at-bats:

Runs: 84 -- Hits: 176 -- 2B: 49 -- 3B: 4 -- HR: 31 -- HR: 99 -- SB: 8 -- BB: 68 -- K: 143 -- Ave: .271 -- OBP: .348 -- SLG: .462

Church's numbers are for the most part identical to Baldelli's save stolen bases and batting average. But his .348 OBP is much better than Baldelli's .324 and his OPS is 43 points higher as well. And though Baldellis does have a higher stolen base total, his last two years - since his ACL surgery - looks just like Church's.

Some team, somewhere, is in need of a center fielder and will take a chance on Rocco Baldelli. The Nationals will at least take a look at him, but what they now have is a certainty vs. Baldelli's "maybe." And just so it's clear, while Baldelli is a good center fielder, his career fielding average is .984, whereas Ryan Church has fielded at a .993 clip over that same time.

I think if Baldelli stays healthy, he'll likely hit .280-20-80 or so next season. Ryan Church, if given the opportunity, will likely hit .274-18-80 or so but with a better fielding percentage.

Unless Church can be packaged for a top-flight starter, someone like Johan Santana, then the "brain trust" needs to plug their noses and just let Church play.

It makes just too much sense. I guess that's why Jim Bowden continues to waffle about the guy.

Arizona Fall League: This year, Nationals pitchers are doing much better than hitters. Justin Maxwell is hitting just .174-1-3 in 46 at-bats. Kory Casto is at .238-0-1. Devan Ivany is still doing well at .333-3-6, but his average has dropped over the last few games.

Adam Carr is 0-0, 3.38, Zech Zincola is at 1-1, 3.38 and Garrett Mock is 0-0, 0.00.

ZIMMERMAN LOSES GOLD GLOVE, WRIST BONE

2007-11-06T16:38:00.000-08:00

[November 7th] -- it was a double whammy for Ryan Zimmerman on Tuesday. He broke a bone in his wrist while taking batting practice (it's not going to effect him next year thank goodness) and then he found out he didn't win his first Gold Glove.

That he didn't win isn't a surprise. He committed 23 errors and seemed to take a step back defensively (though to be fair it was due to a lack of concentration rather than a mechanical problem). What surprised me was that his childhood friend, David Wright, beat him out (Zimmerman came in third behind Wright and perennial winner Scott Rolen). Marty Noble at mlb.com said it this way: "In voting by the coaches and managers in the National League, Wright was elected over the Cardinals' Scott Rolen, who had won the National League Gold Glove for third basemen in seven of the previous nine years, including last season, and Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals, Wright's long-time friend who generally is regarded as a superior defender. "

We all got the chance to see Wright play often this year, and there was nothing there that indicated he was a Gold-Glove candidate. He makes most of the routine plays but spectacular, Zimmerman-like plays are few and far between. So why Wright?

Lets take a look at Wright and Zimmerman's stats side-by-side.

Wright: Putouts:107 -- Assists:304 -- Errors:21 -- Double Plays:24 -- Fielding %:.954

Zimmerman: Putouts:140 -- Assists:348 -- Errors:23 -- Double Plays:39 -- Fielding %:.955

In roughly the same number of innings, Zimmerman has 33 more putouts, 44 more assists, 15 more double plays and a better fielding percent, not to mention a whole slew of Web Gems.

And yet Wright wins the award.

Fear not. Once Zimmerman wins his first, he'll likely rip off a string of 10 or 12 in a row before he's finally done. I watched Brooks Robinson play as a kid. He's considered the best of all time. Without exaggerating, I think that Ryan is better on the spectacular plays and almost as good on the routine. He just might end up being known as the "best ever."

Could happen.

THINGS STARTING TO PERCOLATE

2007-11-03T17:54:00.000-07:00

[November 3rd] -- Sorry it's been a few days since my last post. Not a lot of news combined with not a lot of time means not many stories. Let's see what we can find to talk about....

The Seattle Mariners - to their credit - opted not to pick up Jose Guillen's $9 million dollar option for next year, though they still say they might negotiate a new, multi-year deal with Guillen like any other free agent on the market.

A couple of interesting things here. Guillen, who batted .290-23-99 in 2007, says he wants to end his career with the Mariners. Of course, he said the same thing about the Nationals, and the Angels, and the Athletics, and the Devil Rays and ... well .... you get the idea. Also, Mariners' manager John McLaren says that Guillen has not been a problem in the Seattle clubhouse. "I don't know where all the trouble came from, but he wasn't trouble here" said McLaren.

Newsflash to McLaren: Wait. It'll come.

Jose Guillen reminds me a lot of my wife. When things are going well, when there isn't much to get stressed about, Guillen is a good teammate. But when things are off kilter, when outside pressures are causing problems, Jose Guillen will erupt and destroy the clubhouse (it's a good thing my wife doesn't read this blog, huh?).

The Mariners turned down $9 million a year, and Guillen turned down Jim Bowden's $7 million a year in 2006. Sounds like a 4 year, $32 million deal to me.

Would the Nationals be better with Jose Guillen in right instead of Austin Kearns? Last season, Guillen committed 8 errors, had 9 assists and a .972 fielding percent. Kearns made just 2 errors along with 9 assists. His fielding percent was .995. If Guillen is thought to be an excellent fielder - and he is - then Kearns must be considered a super-star. Offensively, Kearns is capable of matching Guillen's offense, and will probably exceed it one day. And Kearns is considered one of the genuine "nice guys" in the Nationals' clubhouse while Guillen, well you know the answer to that.

Really, it's no comparison. Guillen is four years older and sometimes acts like a four-year old. He'll probably play another six years and do it with six different teams. Kearns, on the other hand, will be a National for the rest of his career.

And now word surfaces that he's been doping for several years. A doped-up outfielder with an anger management problem.

So, what's that worth exactly??

With the general managers' meeting in full swing, there are already several rumors that are beginning to circle the Washington Nationals (and some suggestions from fans to be sure).

Some are trying to read something into Jim Bowden's contacting Aaron Rowand and Tori Hunter's agents. Nothing's happening here. Both are top-tier free agents that just aren't in the Nationals' plans right now; Kasten has said it and Bowden has said it. And they're right. As much as I'd like to see a stud in center, the team just isn't strong enough to ride the coat tails of a super star into the playoffs. And if they aren't, then why spend $12 or $15 million a year?

The Tampa Bay "Rays" [they've all but dropped the "Devil" part of their name] are going to be shopping Scott Kazmir during this year's Winter Meeting. Kazmir was part of the most one-sided trades in recent memory when the Mets traded the former 1st round pick along with Jose Diaz to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Bartolome Fortunato and Victor Zambrano [who?]. Playing for a bad team in a decidedly offensive division, Kazmir has gone 35-29, 3.64 since 2005. What would it take to get him into a Nationals' uniform? Start with Matt Chico, throw in either Jon Rauch or Chad Cordero and a mid-level minor leaguer, and you'd be pretty close.

How busy will Jimbo be this off season? My guess is very. The Nationals have to at least appear to be stocking the team with player upgrades for the new stadium. These are the players I expect to be traded by opening day:

Felipe Lopez: Ronnie Belliard is a great 2nd baseman and the law of averages demands that Cristian Guzman have one good, healthy year out of four in D. C.

Chad Cordero or Jon Rauch. The team won't miss one of them (with Luis Ayala filling in the 8th inning set-up roll)

Ryan Church: I love him, the team doesn't. If they find a power hitting outfielder, he'll be the guy to go.

We're getting into my favorite time of year when foundations are being laid for trades and signings that will help craft next year's team.

Wahoo.

THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN RENDERINGS AND REALITY

2007-10-27T10:33:00.000-07:00

[October 27th] -- I remember the day as if it was yesterday. The Nationals announced that renderings for their new stadium would be introduced to the public on March 15th, 2005. I remember because I was due to take two tests that day at school and emailed both professors telling them that I was too *cough-cough* sick to make it to school. About 15 minutes before the press conference, I went to the Washington Post's website and began to hit the refresh button, over and over until David Nakamura's article, and the architect's renderings, appeared.

I didn't know what to expect. A month earlier, Nakamura wrote an article detailing expectations for the stadium. It was to be a "signature" park" with a design that eschewed the retro-look of Camden Yards and its clones (isn't it interesting that the term "cookie-cutter" which once described the spate of circular multi-purpose stadiums can now just as easily be used to describe all of the turn-of-the-century designs that dot the major league landscape?). "We do not want to see just another baseball stadium," said Allen Y. Lew, chief executive of the D.C. Sports and Entertainment Commission. "We want signature architecture. We're not looking to just mimic other cities." In its bid packets, the city government advised architects that they were seeking to "create architecture for Washington that is distinctive and of this time." What did that mean exactly? They never said, other than the complex was to be lower in height than traditional ballparks so as to not hide the vista views that Washington offers.

So I wasn't sure what to expect. When I first saw the renderings, I was happy, but not thrilled. The stadium was great to be sure, but I saw nothing that was particularly spectacular. My biggest concern has been the outside elevations of the stadium. I hope the real deal doesn't have that hodge-podge appearance of the drawings.

I went back and looked closely at the renderings for the first time in more than a year. After all, why bother when you have the real thing to look at. I was curious to see how different the stadium was from those first drawings. From the outfield perspective, things seem about the same save a few glaring differences.

Take a look at the scoreboard. The angle of the steel beams that holds both the "Nationals" name and clock isn't as sloping as it was in the drawings. The letters that make up the team's name was originally to be the same size, using the style of letters that appears on the front of the Potomac Nationals' jersey. The final product, however, uses the same letters that the Nationals' current uniform displays. The letters were to have begun straight and then sloped down towards the clock, but now the 'N' and 'S' begin and end on the same level. Everything else seems the same.

Personally, I liked what the architects envisioned more than what the team ended up with.

The other part that might be different is the huge red "W" above the grassy knoll in dead center. Looking at the construction camera images, I am having a hard time seeing how that it is going to work. Other than that, things are looking pretty close.

It's a great stadium, but it's nothing new and and doesn't redefine baseball architecture. The interior is wonderful but, like I said, I am not particularly enamoured with the exterior.

Still, it beats RFK all to heck.

BALDELLI WILL BE AVAILABLE; WILL BOWDEN MAKE A DEAL?

2007-10-24T11:06:00.000-07:00